Atal Behari Vajpayee bagged close to 70 per cent in a recent opinion poll, conducted ironically to find his successor ... Judge(d) by (any) yardsticks. Personal popularity: Full marks. Coalition management: Full marks. Foreign policy achievements: A plus ... the succession talk just doesn't fit in - not in the context of the above achievements, and even less considering Vajpayee is the bedrock on which the edifice called the NDA, and (its) the government, rest.

Clearly, there's something extraordinary here. The BJP is not itself these days; there is a lethargy in the cadre which is inexplicable for a party that has won two successive elections ... and has Vajpayee for its leader ...

What explains this? ... The poll seemed to confirm the reigning political joke: Vajpayee is number one, two, three ... right up to number ten .. Previously, Advani had barely made it to the list of wannabes, finishing behind even the Mulayams and the Laloos ... From that to 45 per cent is an unexplained mega leap.

Advani's track record as home minister couldn't have anything to do with this. The promised Sardar in Advani has hardly been spotted. Tough talk, yes - hot pursuit, white paper on ISI and so on - but not much actual action.

The succession story is, then, not about Advani (but) is symptomatic really of what is to come. A political party in good health will rarely disturb the existing order: It is sound business sense not to rock a good thing. Conversely, it is when the outlook is bleak that political manoeuvres are at a peak. Leadership change needs a strong impetus.

Indira Gandhi reigned like an empress as long as she won elections. When she didn't, the party threw her out. V P Singh challenged Rajiv only after Bofors ruined the Congress's election prospects. Mandal did the same to Singh. Narasimha Rao was shown the door after his party bit the dust in 1996. Sonia came on the strength of her mystique and the Gandhi name, both of which stand devalued in the aftermath of the Congress's humiliating defeat ..

In other words, it is the BJP's precarious health that has emboldened sections of the BJP and the Sangh Parivar to float the succession story. Indeed, there is no better barometer than the RSS to understand this. The Sangh is a typical bully ... The Sangh is once again doing all it can to embarrass Vajpayee. The more moves Bangaru Laxman (a Vajpayee appointee) makes towards the minorities, the more the RSS talks of swadeshi churches and Indianised Islam.

The coming elections have made this a Catch-22 situation for Vajpayee. If he talks tough, he risks alienating the Sangh, its vote base and Advani, who has made it a point to defend the organization. If he mollifies it - as he did with the 'I'm a swayamsewak' bit - the Sangh gets the upper hand.

There are other ... worries. The economic indicators (are bad) ... Politically, the BJP is in a deeper mess. UP has slipped out of its grip ... In West Bengal, the BJP and the Trinamul are not vibing well and in Tamil Nadu the party has no leadership to speak of Vajpayee is popular. The BJP is unpopular. Till now the two have carried on with this mismatch: With crucial state elections coming up, the gap could get wider ... There is a real danger that the BJP will go down, dragging the PM with it. (Source: the Times of India, 26 October, 2000)