Introduction
Five years ago, Outlook commissioned an opinion poll in the Valley to fill a vital gap in public discourse – taking into account the thinking of the Kashmiris. The results were carried in the inaugural issue of October 18, 1995. Half-a-decade later, MDRA went to the Valley to, once again, flesh out the dominant trends in the current ferment. In view of the fact that no census records for the Valley have been in existence since 1981, the results of both the Outlook polls constitute the only empirical data in the country - perhaps even in the world - on what the Kashmiris think. Twelve years after the Kalashnikov found its way into the Valley, some broad trends can be discerned:
More peopie than previously think a solution is possible within the Indian Constitution.
The dominant feeling that Kashmir should have a separate identity has grown, albeit marginally.
Peace is in. Promotion of violence as a means to an end may now be counter-productive.
Though Pakistan is considered central as a "third party" negotiator, it is not considered as being a core part of a final solution.
And, Kashmiri women have a political voice that is emerging as an independent counterpoise to traditional political thought.
In all, 581 respondents (468 men and 113 women) were interviewed (from September 20-24) by MDRA's field officers at 32 urban and rural locations across five towns in the Valley - Srinagar, Budgam, Baramulla, Anantnag and Kargil - which, in geographical terms, covers the entire Valley. In '95, the poll revealed that Kashmiris were committed io dig their heels for a long haul in their quest for azadi. The sentiment rules. The road to peace is undoubtedly going to be bloody. Alienated from their masters in New Delhi and the self-proclaimed saviours in Pakistan, Kashmiris still be in that twilight zone.
Do you feel that a solution to the Kashmir problem exists within the framework of the Indian Constitution?
Yes : 39
No : 58
Can't Say : 3
Should Pakistan be involved as a third party in legitimations to solve the problem?
Yes : 91
No : 7
Can't say : 2
Is your opinion what is the solution to the Kashmir problem?
Separate identity of J&K : 74
Greater Autonomy to J&K : 16
Other Solutions : 3
Merger with Pakistan : 2
Pre-1953 status : 5
What do you think is responsible for the violence Kashmir?
Both the security forces and the militants: 39
Security Forces : 13
Militants : 5
State : 34
Centre : 8
Do you want Pakistan to stop supporting Mancy in Kashmir?
Yes : 70
No : 22
Can't say : 8
Do you support a Hizbul-type ceasefire as a prelude to political dialogue?
Yes : 82
No : 14
Can't say : 4
Whom should the Government of India talk to so as to solve the Kashmir problem?
Hurriyat : 54
Hizbul Mujahideen : 8
Farooq Abdullah : 2
All political parties : 36
Does the Hurriyat Conference represent the interests of the people of Kashmir?
Yes : 77
No : 19
Can't say : 4
Who's been more serious about solving the issue: The Vajpayee Government or the Congress?
Vajpayee Govt : 31
Congress Govt. : 13
None : 52
Both : 4
(Source: The Outlook)
