Let us ... survey the international 3K trend towards "protectoration"

In Kosovo, NATO acted forcefully to stop Serbia's bloody assertion of sovereignty. Because we are loath to redraw borders, we deny Kosovo independence but will enforce its autonomy. It is now a protectorate of NATO; after a decent interval, a plebiscite will probably be held to permit self-determination.

... Iraqi Kurdistan is a de facto protectorate, dependent on the resolve of the U.S. President.

In Kashmir, we see a protectorate-in-waiting. As the British learned in India, and as the Israelis learned on much of the West Bank, a democracy's administration of a hostile population is ultimately self-defeating.

And India is a democracy. Much as it wants to incorporate Kashmir, it faces growing local resistance and its own ensuing repression and brutalization. Forget "world opinion"; Indian self-respect and economic self- interest will impel it toward the granting of ever-greater autonomy to thè Kashmiris.

But what then? Autonomy is desirable; it is seen as a grand experiment in diversity-within-unity, and works fine in Puerto Rico and Scotland. But inmost of the world, autonomy is a peaceful stop on the way to self-determination. In Kurdistan and Kosovo, that means independence.

What about Kashmir? In India's eyes, Pakistan is a garrison state (which) salivates at the prospect of swallowing Kashmir. Would Kashmiris be able to fend off or be better off under militant Muslim rule?

Moderate Pakistanis say: give Kashmir much more autonomy. Start pulling out your occupation forces. We'll promise not to infiltrate. Let the Kashmiris decide their future.

India won't do for that for years. But Kashmir is like a fault in the political earth; the tectonic plates under growing pressure, and the non-nuclear region has much to fear from the Big One. The answer may well take the form of protectorate as it has in Kosovo and Kurdistan - but in this case, the intercession would be invited by all three parties rather than punitively imposed.

Nobody planned this protectoration trend. Nor does it offer finality ... But it seems to be a way of giving peoples time to sort things out for themselves. (Source: The New York Times, 9 July, 1999)