NATIONAL POLITICS

Ajoy Bose on BJP's Limited and Sectarian Base

The abject failure of the BJP to reach a majority in the Uttar Pradesh Assembly polls has not merely deprived it of regaining power in the country's largest State. It has also dealt a stunning psychological blow to the party's long-term plans of becoming the national alternative to the Congress.

For the BJP, the UP polls provided a golden opportunity to demonstrate its superiority in the face of a badly divided Opposition. Indeed, the electoral contest in the State suited the party perfectly since there was virtually a vertical split in the anti-BJP vote.

BIP leaders had (in 1993) explained the party's poor showing in terms of the opposition unity index. In fact, they had waxed eloquent on how the unholy nexus between the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj as well as the collapse of the Congress vote bank had cumulatively turned a BJP victory into a defeat.

It is also astounding that the BJP was unable to derive any electoral advantage out of the present controversies raging around its political rivals in UP.

There could have been no better political scenario for the BJP to have put its best foot forward in UP. Yet, neither the division in the anti-BJP vote, nor the poor public image of its opponents appears to have helped the party move even an inch closer to capturing power in Lucknow.

This baffling failure of the BJP may turn its disappointing performance into a cause of great disquiet within the party (and) a fresh bout of uncertainty not only about its prospects in the State but at the national level as well.

The setback in UP has come shortly in the wake of the party's down fall in Gujarat. Having blown a two thirds majority in Gujarat and frittered away the chance of an easy win in UP in quick succession, the confidence of BJP leaders must have plunged to a new low.

For the BJP, more than any other party, such a confidence crisis is particularly damaging. Adept at self- publicity and media manipulation, BJP propagandists have always managed to project a larger-than-life image of the party. But aggressive public relations is a double-edged weapon and when the chips are down the BJP usually falls twice as hard compared to its political rivals.

Yet, it would do not harm to the BJP leadership to indulge in less propaganda and more self-introspection.

Regardless of the party leadership's claims, the meteoric rise of the BJP in the past decade has not followed a systematic evolutionary path but been characterized by the most convoluted and lopsided growth. This has left it vulnerable to the constantly fracturing political mosaic in the country today.

Unfortunately, neither of the two frontline leaders of the BJP have been able to consolidate the huge gains made by the party out of the debris of the collapsing Congress edifice into a permanent support base. Advani has been hamstrung by the Hawala case vacillating between moods of extreme depression and those of sheer bravado.

Vajpayee, on the other hand, appears to be content in being regarded as the tallest politician in the country but displaying neither the aptitude or inclination to turn the BJP around. Despite his sterling oratory within Parliament and at election meetings, Vajpayee has given no fresh direction to his party. The second rank leadership in the BJP conspicuous by its absence.

In Uttar Pradesh itself, the emergence of a backward caste leaders like Kalyan Singh had some years ago provided a cutting edge to an upper caste dominated party like the BJP. But Singh in recent years have palpably failed to craft an effective caste alliance.

It is therefore not surprising that despite a fertile political soil to grow taller, the BJP has been unable to exhibit either the imagination or the audacity to do so. Instead of widening its support base party leadership has clung to its already committed urban middle class support neglecting grassroots activism and mass action.

With the fading of the Hindutva movement and the lack of an alternative platform, the BJP had sought to win the Uttar Pradesh polls through sheer mathematical jugglery. It is a broader poll chemistry that paves the way for clear victory.

In the process, the BJP has only exposed its limited and sectarian base clearly inadequate to take the party past the winning post. Having stumbled so badly in its stronghold, the BJP at the moment does not seem at the moment to have what it takes to conquer the far more difficult terrain across the country.

(Source: The Pioneer, II October, 1996)

M.J. Akbar on the Secular Hindu

It needs to be pointed out that India remains a secular state not because one-fifths of its population is Muslim, Sikh or Christian, and therefore, obviously has a vested interest in secular constitution, but because nine out of ten Hindus do not believe in violence against the minorities. If all the Hindus had been zealots, no law-and-order machinery in the world could have prevented the massacre of Muslims who are scattered in villages and towns all across the country.

(Source: The Organizer, 29 September, 1996),