NATIONAL POLITICS
Vidya Subrahmaniam on BJP's Prospects in UP
The BJP's plan for Uttar Pradesh would appear to be running to script. A year ago it broke the back of the Muslim-Backward-Dalit combination when it astutely split the match-winning partnership between the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party. And now the election-eve appearance of the Ramesh Chandra report has so quickly and so thoroughly reopened old wounds that the BJP's principal opponents can be expected to stay at each other's throats for the better part of the campaign. A BJP walkover would then appear to have been written into the three-cornered contest between the BJP and the two electoral combinations of the Congress-BSP and the SP-led United Front. And yet, it could be simplistic to conclude that the BIP has merely to sit back and watch while its enemies do its job for it.
Unassailable Position
Prima facie, the party is in an unassailable position. With an aggregate vote share of 33 per cent, it has a decisive edge over both the BSP-Congress (29% ; 21 and #) and the United Front parties of SP, Janata Dal, Congress-T and the Left (28; 21, 4, 2 and 1 respectively). The BIP is also ahead in 235 assembly segments as against the SP's 78, the BSP's 57, the JD's 12 and the Congress's 20 and the Congress-T's 9. The BJP can legitimately take comfort from several other factors, besides. Take, for instance, the BSP's 21% vote from 85 Lok Sabha seats (or 425 assembly segments). This has only to be measured against the 11% the party polled in 1993 from a mere 162 seats for it no longer to look quite so formidable. Add to this the Congress's pathetic 8 per cent, also from 85 parliamentary seats, and the result is nothing such as to upset the BJP camp. Indeed, it would be quite in order for the BJP to expect the BSP- Congress's combined actual strength to fall below 28%.
The mainly upper-caste votes of the Congress will not be transferred to the BSP. The Congress polled a mere nine per cent of the Dalit votes in the Lok Sabha elections, according to an exit poll done by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS). Allowing for a similar lukewarm response from the alienated Muslim community, it follows that the bulk of the Congress's eight per cent vote came from the upper castes. Not only would the Congress's upper caste voters then refuse to transfer their votes to the BSP's Dalit candidates, but they might break away altogether. Should this happen, the Congress-BSP pact virtually collapses.
The BJP would be equally valid in disputing the sustainability of the UF coalition. The only liable performer here is the SP, but even that party can be expected to suffer an erosion in its base with the Dalits firmly closing ranks behind the Congress-BSP and the Muslims who voted overwhelmingly with the SP-JD in the Lok Sabha elections - thrown into confusion by the emergence of a second, viable option.
The clue to the BJP's insecurity lies perhaps in the 1993 elections. At that time no one gave the SP-BSP a chance against the BJP because between them they had 22 per cent and 46 seats to the BJP's 32 per cent and 221 seats. In the event, the two raised their collective strength to 29 per cent and 177 seats. More importantly, they formed a government despite being five per cent behind the BJP. the 1993 elections proved two things: One, the viability of a combine decides whether or not its antagonistic constitutes transfer their votes. Two, a combine with different support bases bags more seats for the same vote than a single party.
A region-wise analysis of the 1996 election results shows the BJP as having a clear lead over its rivals in only three of the state's seven geographical divisions - Uttarakhand, Ruhelkhand, Upper Doab, Awadh, Lower Doab, Bundelkhand and Poorvanchal. This could be because despite their smaller overall vote, the Congress- BSP and the UF- within the UF, the Congress-T and the Left-are strong in specific areas.
In the hills of Uttarakhand and the Muslim dominated Ruhelkhand, it is the SP-JD-Congress-T combination which is way ahead, polling 41 per cent and 36 per cent to the BJP's 30 and 29 per cent respectively. In the backward Bundelkhand, the Congress-BSP has 35 per cent to the BJP's 33 while in Poorvanchal or eastern UP, the BJP and the SP-JD-Congress-T-Left coalition are level with 29 per cent each. Of the remaining three, the upper Doab or the Jat belt (western UP) is potentially fertile territory for the Congress-BSP. The Dalits are in good numbers here and with a little help from the Jats - that, of course, would depend on Mr. Ajit Singh's ability to sell the combine the Congress-BSP could considerably narrow the gap between its 32 per cent and the BJP's 40. At 37 per cent, the PD's showing in the lower, Doab is impressive by any standards, but it must be remembered that this is Mulayam Singh Yadav country. The former chief minister is unlikely to want to concede a second defeat here. If the BJP has an unbeatable presence anywhere, it is in Awadh or central UP. This region sends up 100-odd seats and here the Congress-BSP with its 26 per cent and the UF with its 24 per cent are up against the BJP's 35 per cent.
In the Lok Sabha elections, the BJP had done well among the Dalits, picking up as many as 14 of the 18 reserved constituencies. Its OBC candidates had fared equally well, winning 11 of the 14 seats allotted to them. This turf is now under attack on two fronts, from the Congress-BSP and the upper caste leadership of the BJP. The BSP, which had garnered nearly 60 per cent of the Dalit vote in the Lok Sabha elections, has since enhanced its appeal among this section. The party is also working assiduously to chip away at the BJP's most backward caste (MBC) support by presenting itself as the only option for the larger Bahujan Samaj. The fact that the MBC vote is more candidate-specific than party-specific should help the BSP in its task. Assured of its Dalit base, it can experiment with a larger share of tickets for the MBCs. Towards that end it has already appointed an MBC gadaria the first party, in fact, to do so as its state unit president.
The BJP can fight this in one of two ways. It can distribute the majority of its tickets among the Dalits and the backwards so as to divide the votes of its opponents. This is a sensible approach given that most upper castes would anyway vote with the BJP. But the party's entrenched upper-caste leadership wouldn't hear of it. This caste divide, in fact, explains why the party hasn't projected Mr. Kalyan Singh as its chief ministerial candidate. Alternatively, the BJP could focus on Ayodhya and hope that the temple tide will sweep away all casteist aspirations. But the issue can be revived only at the cost of alienating the southern regional parties, whose support is vital for the BJP to form an interim government.
(Source: The Times of India, 10 August, 1996)
Arun Nehru On U.P. Assembly Elections
The political activity before September's Assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh has triggered off events which an lead to fresh general elections.
In a fast-changing scenario, I see the BJP getting between 180-220 seats, the BSP-Congress alliance between 120-150, the United Front between 50-70 seats and a similar number to independents and others. The BJP seems to be on the up-swing, the BSP-Congress alliance is taking root and Mr. Mulayam Singh Yadav is losing ground rapidly.
The CPI(M) and the CPI vote is one per cent in Uttar Pradesh and of little electoral effect. Wars within the Janata Dal are pulling (Deve Gowda) down and nobody seems to have a clue about what to do. The departure of Mufti Mohammed Sayeed, Ramakrishan Hegde and Maneka Gandhi and V.P. Singh's silence, merely confirm that the Janata Dal has little time and Deve Gowda is left to manage events which are clearly S. Rajagopalan.
On BJP Electoral Strategy in UP
In a dexterous move, the "Sangh Parivar" is positioning itself to whip up the temple hysteria all over sting after the 1992 demolition, plans are afoot to turn the again. Given the fact that Ayodhya has somewhat lost its spotlight on the "liberation" of Kashi and Mathura shrines.
The BJP itself will steer clear of Kashi and Mathura, in line with the assertion that these shrines are "not on the party's agenda". But the front organizations of the Sangh clan, namely Vishwa Hindu Parishad and Bajrang Dal, are to go full blast on this, even as the BJP confines itself to Ayodhya.
For all its overt distancing from the sensitive Kashi- Mathura issue, the BJP will not be put to any disadvantage. All the efforts of VHP and Bajrang Dal to whip up "Hindu consciousness" will, as per calculations enable the BJP to reap the benefits of "consolidation of Hindu votes"
The strategic move of BJP MP Vinay Katiyar to launch an "indirect campaign" on Kashi-Mathura liberation has to be seen in this light. Mr. Katiyar has Places of Worship (Protection) Act. The move will target agreed to confine his campaign to the repeal of the on Kashi-Mathura as far as public perception goes. For, a repeal of this law will "clear the decks for liberation of the two shrines".
Speculation is rife that he may very well have embarked on it with "official approval, if not bidding". This should become clear from the way the matter is dealt with by the party.
Present indications, however, are that the BJP is unlikely to turn the heat on Mr. Katiyar even if he chooses to defy its directive to party members not to rake up Kashi and Mathura. At the most, Mr. Katiyar would be asked to send in his resignation so that the party is not seen to be compromising on the subject.
In the UP-Assembly polls, likely to be held in early October, the BJP has left no one in doubt that it would continue to project the Ayodhya issue prominently. A meeting of senior leaders, convened by Mr. L.K. Advani identified two broad themes: Ayodhya and Mulayam Singh Yadav's "misrule".
The BJP circles strongly disagree with the view that Ayodhya is a spent force. Although the Babari Masjid structure has been demolished in the complex, party leaders are convinced that the "inordinate delay" in construction of a temple at the site would keep the issue alive.
