NATIONAL POLITICS

UP: Post Election Report on Muslims

After breaking free from the politics of "fatwas". 1. exemplified in their tactical voting pattern witnessed in the recent Lok Sabha elections, the Muslims in UP, who can exert a decisive influence in about 125 Assembly segments, are palpably confused, angry and on the horns of a dilemma. Where do they go from here appears to be the logical question troubling the minds of the members. of the minority community whose avowed objective during the elections has been to ensure the defeat of their bete noire, the BJP. The Lok Sabha elections saw the partial success of the voting tactics yet it could not deter the BJP from winning about two-thirds of the 85 seats.

But, with the so-called political messiahs of the Muslims, Mr. Mulayam Singh Yadav and Mr. Kanshi Ram, pulling in different directions the forthcoming Vidhan Sabha elections will be the litmus test of the minority community's voting 'prowess".

In fact, much of the dilemma and the anger among the Muslims was largely on account of the attitude of the Samajwadi Party and the BSP towards them, and towards their aspirations. Says Ishtiaq, who works in a tool room training workshop, "The political parties have taken us. for a ride, earlier it was the Congress, now it is the SP and the BSP. The Muslims have been used merely as pawns on the political chess board."

What seems to be troubling the more enlightened members of the minority community is that there has been no perceptible change in the socio-economic conditions of the large mass of the Muslims even after about half a century of "serfdom" of the different political parties.

In the present political scenario in the state, the SP and the BSP were the two parties who measured up to the expectations of the Muslims. Yet the latest developments in these parties seemed to belie those expectations. The defense minister has been charged with deliberately trying to upstage the Muslim leadership within his party. The BSP supremo has reportedly condemned the Muslims for not supporting his party in the Lok Sabha polls. Mr. Kanshi Ram has even gone to the extent of reportedly directing his partymen to keep the Muslims out of the BSP poll strategy. The Muslims have reportedly been berated for not giving unstinted support to the BSP despite 23 Muslims being given tickets by Mr. Kanshi Ram in the Parliamentary elections. A senior bureaucrat says, "Giving tickets to the Muslims cannot alone become a criterion for securing their support".

If Mr. Kanshi Ram was allegedly threatening to browbeat the Muslims, Mr. Yadav, SP insiders alleged has throttled all moves vis-a-vis emergence of Muslim leadership, and has according to a preconceived plan given tickets to only weak Muslim candidates in the elections. Unhappy at the manner in which things were unfolding in his party, a senior SP leader said. Mulayam will have to decide what is their priority, to stop the BJP from capturing power in UP or to become the Chief Minister, both the things cannot go together".

Admittedly, the Muslims have no option before them, it has to be either the SP or the BSP in the Vidhan Sabha elections. As the bureaucrat says "They will have to decide which party to support". Clearly, the division in their votes, both the SP and the BSP were giving conflicting claims regarding the Muslim supp two parties, would only help the BJP.

 (Source: The Pioneer)

Shahabuddin's Proposal for Seat Adjustment in Uttar Pradesh

1.All non-BJP secular parties should form a Secular Front to contain and defeat the BJP in coming elections in U.P. and constitute a Coordination Committee to finalise the names of common candidates and direct the election campaign.

2.The Secular Front should issue a common Manifesto or Programme of Action.

3.The performance in the recent Lok Sabha election, segment-wise, should be the primary criterion for the allotment of assembly constituencies among the members of the Secular Front.

a.     If the BJP or any of its allies 'won' any segment against a Party of the Secular Front which was the runner-up, or vice versa, that Party should be allotted that Constituency.

b.     If the BJP etc. won a segment, against an independent or a non-Secular Front party as the runner-up, or vice versa, the Constituency should be allotted to a Secular Front party on merit, after consultation.

c.     If one Party of the Secular Front won a segment. against another party of the Front, the Constituency. should be allotted to the winner.

d.     The Secular Front members may exchange. constituencies by mutual consent.

4. Every member Party should, field in a Constituency allotted to it, a candidate hailing from the 'sympathetic' social group or sub-group which has highest or the second highest concentration in that Constituency.

5. (a) All social groups and sub-groups which are identifiable and whose population forms at least 0.25% of the population of UP should be allotted constituencies numerically proportionate to their population and a smaller group or sub-group should have such constituencies earmarked for them in which they have a concentration and have suitable candidates to offer.

(b) Every Secular Front candidate proposed by a Member Party should be assessed against the social demography of the constituency by the Coordination Committee of the Secular Front and if found wanting the party concerned should change the candidate.

6. The names of the Secular Front candidates should be announced at least one month before the nomination begins.

UP: Prospects of Electoral Alliance

The forthcoming Assembly elections in U.P. are crucial for the survival of almost all political parties.

While BJP after tasting success in the Lok Sabha polls is keen to repeat its performance in the Assembly elections also, its main rival, the Samajwadi Party, is equally desperate to checkmate its growth and establish its supremacy in the State politics. But its rival, the BSP, is struggling to pull it down and fill up the slot. And the expectations have certainly shot up following the BSP's performance in the Lok Sabha polls in which it attained the highest percentage of 20.63 votes polled.

Congress, after facing rout, is hardly in a position to take on either of their rivals independently. While Rao Congress is courting BSP, Congress (T) has become a constituent of the United Front. Other political group like the JD, CPI and CPM are electorally insignificant though they play an important political role in the State politics.

With both the SP and BSP closing doors for negotiations, the stage is set for a triangular contest, presuming an electoral tie-up between Congress and BSP. Over and above, the Communists continue to pursue the BSP to join the Front though they are averse to Congress becoming a partner. The prospects of SP and BSP coming together again, even for the purpose of defeating the BJP, appear dim...

If the parties decide to keep the Lok Sabha election results as the basis for the seat sharing, then all of them tend to lose quiet a bit an analysis of the segment wise Lok Sabha results reveal that BJP had won in 237 Assembly segments, SP in 79, BSP in 56, Rao Congress in 23, JD and Congress(T) in 10 each In 1993 results BJP had won 177 seats, SP-109 (which went up to 128 after by elections and defections from other parties), BSP in 69, Congress in 28 and JD in 27 seats only.

In fact, all the political parties, barring the BJP, went down in their electoral strength in the 1996 Lok Sabha polls as compared to the 1993 Assembly elections.

(Source: The Hindustan Times, 19 June, 1996)

UP: Lok Sabha Election Results

                                           No.of Segment                 No. of Segment           

(Note Some Segment were ‘Won’ by one member party)

M.D. Nalapat on Congress-BSP Alliance

While outwardly maintaining that the Deve Gowda government is "very stable", the Congress party appears to be preparing its defenses in the event of a mid-term poll. The old strategy of the party was to cobble together a Forward-Muslim-Dalit vote bank. The alliance with the BSP is an indication that the Congress has realized it cannot attract such a combination on its own.

While the vote share of the Congress in the UP elections was 8 per cent, this low figure may be based on an assessment by voters that the party was not a viable contender for power, and hence that it was unwise to "waste" votes on it. By linking up with the BSP, the Congress has once again become a potential BJP foe. Hence, the expectation is that the "hidden" support for the party may once again emerge. In a three-cornered race, 35 per cent of the vote should be sufficient to guarantee victory. At present, both the BSP and the Congress together have 29 per cent.

For the alliance to work, it is essential that enough Forwards back it, and also a significant section of the Muslims. While it is a fact that the community was angered by the Narasimha Rao government's inability to preserve the Babari Masjid, the fact that Mr. Rao is no once again make the Congress a contender for Muslim longer in office may have reduced their anger enough to votes. Should the Congress-BSP alliance give indications of becoming a more effective rival to the BJP than the combine led by Mulayam Singh Yadav, many Muslims may vote for it to keep the BJP out.

The United Front will, for its future survival, need to ensure that the Congress-BSP alliance does poorly in UP. Indeed, it needs to ensure that the Congress does badly in former ruling party do well, pressures will mount for a the clutch of by-elections that are likely soon. Should the reconsideration of the policy of support to the UF. While the ideal situation would be UF victories in the coming tests of strength, paradoxically a BJP victory would also strengthen the stability of the UF, by making it clear to the supporting parties that polls would be suicidal just yet. Thus, a Congress victory would be much more. destabilizing for the UF than a BJP win.

The Congress-BSP alliance is a sign that an early winter may be setting in for the present government.

 (Source: The Times of India, 26 June, 1996)

The upper castes and anti-social forces united against the Dalits, backwards and poor, and looted their votes in an organized manner.

- Laloo Prasad Yadav, President, Janata Dal