Numbers indicate that Mulayam Singh Yadav and Mayawati together can stop the BJP in its tracks.
In the last Lok Sabha elections, the BJP had bagged 52 of the 85 seats, largely because of a sharp division of opposition votes. The Samajwadi Party had secured 16 seats and the BSP just six seats. But together, the SP and the BSP notched up more than 40%of the valid votes polled in the Lok Sabha and assembly elections in the state last year. Remarkably, the votes polled by all the three major political parties in the state remained by and large the same in the two elections, held within a space of three months. While the BJP got 32% of the votes in both the elections, the SP and the BSP bagged 20%each. The Congress, which contested the assembly polls in alliance with the BSP, secured eight per cent votes.
With the anti-BJP votes in the state appearing to have stabilised around 50 per cent of the valid votes polled, it is widely believed that a polarisation of the opposition votes this time could well reduce the BJP tally by half.
"The BSP is the only party in the state whose votes can be transferred whichever way Mayawati likes," said a BJP watcher ... This is also the reason why the continuing war of attrition between Mulayam and Mayawati is deemed to be suicidal for the non-BJP fronts. Although the two leaders have publicly ruled out the possibility of any poll alliance, the last word on the subject may not yet have been heard. It would come as no surprise if the BSP eventually tilts one way or the other ... The BSP's dilemma is that although its vote bank remains intact, on its own it cannot make much of a difference to the BJP's calculations.
Once the dust settles, UP is likely to witness some strange bedfellows coming together. But eventually, if the SP and the BSP fail to come together, it could well prove to be a cakewalk for the BJP in the election. For the Congress, it would be all over barring the shouting. (Source: The Times of India, 13 December, 1997)
