UP ELECTIONS

G.V.L.Narasimha Raoon UP Elections

The wheel has turned full circle for all political parties in UP. The final tally of the seats won by the main contenders in the present assembly elections looks practically the same as in the1993elections.

The BJP which was projected to improve its vote share by all pre-poll surveys including that of CMS, has failed to register any increase. An increase in the BJP vote appeared likely in view of the consolidation of upper caste vote as a result of the Congress alliance with the BSP and the inclusion in the UF of the Congress (T).

What seems to have decisively turned the scales against the BJP this time, and more so in Eastern UP, is the turnout factor- both the level of turnout and the differential turnout of various castes. Since 1991,theBJP's performance has varied indifferent elections according to the level of turnout the party won a majority when the turnout was below 50 per cent but fell well short of a majority when turn out exceeded 50percent.

The BJP won a majority in assembly elections only once. that is in 1991,when the turnout was49%. Even in the 1991 and 1996 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP fared well. Ina low turnout situation, when the turnout was 49 and 48%, respectively. On the contrary the party failed in securing a majority in the present assembly elections and the 1993assembly elections when the turnout increased to 54 and 53% respectively. The impact of high or low turnout affects different parties differently. Generally, a high turnout is considered to be an indication of the a un- establishment mood and thus expected to favour a party out of power, while a low turnout is expected to favour a party with a committed base of voters. However. In the present scenario in UP where caste polarisation is sharp, issues cease to be important and caste becomes the overriding factor. What determines the outcome then is the participation of different castes in the voting process.

A high polarisation of voters of different castes along party lines' was evident from the poll surveys. In this situation, the party which could mobilise their core support base the mostrended to benefit.

In Eastern UP where the Yadavs and Dalits account for a substantial chunk of the electorate, they have apparently turned out in much larger numbers to vote for the SP and the BSP, respectively. The high-pitched and acrimonious campaign approach of the SP and the BSP was enough provocation for these groups to turn out in larger numbers to vote. Also the SP and the BSP are generally perceived as regional parties and their voters, therefore, participate more enthusiastically in assembly elections than in Lok Sabha elections, while the BJP is perceived as a national party and the turnout of its supporters goes down in assembly elections.

Upper caste voters have sizeable presence in Eastern UP and have been the mainstay of the BJP in the region. The BJP has apparently failed to mobilise upper caste voters’ .especially in urban areas, and as a result only committed BJP voters turned out to vote. While, that may have helped in a low-turnout situation as in the Lok Sabha elections, ill the present assembly elections, it has clearly not worked.

As the party occupying the distinct second position in Eastern UP. The SP has benefitted the most from the BJP's inability to improve its turnout.... While the BSP has not succeeded much in attracting upper caste votes even where they fielded such candidates the SP does seem to, have succeeded in undercutting the BJP support especially in constituencies where they fielded Rajput /Bhumihar candidates. In conclusion, what seems to have hurt the BJP most and affected the poll forecasts is the inability of the party to mobilise its support base, the upper caste voters, to the polling booths, while its rival the SP and the BSP have fared much better on this score.

P.K. Roy On JD's Poor Tally in UP

The JD's dismal performance in the UP Assembly elections inspite ofthe hectic campaigning by PM Deve Gowda and Central Ministers and the fact that unlike in 1993, it was part of a broad-based UF alliance, is chiefly responsible for keeping the tally of the UF low, compared with the BJP. The Janata Dal which contested 54seatshad managed towinonly7, against 27securedin 1993.

From 208 seats secured by it in 1989,the tally came downto92in1991elections, 27in199~and nowonly7in 1996. The discomfiture of the JD. Has not saddened the SP leaders. Who insisted that in UP Mulayam Singh Yadav's writ ran. The other. Leader to face marginalisation in his home State is Mr.N.D. Tiwari. The Congress (T) managed to win only 4 seats contesting most seats. In the Uttarakhand it has been wiped out there. On the other hand, the Samajwadi Party has further consolidated its position, in terms of poll percentage, although it recorded an increase of only a single seat in 1996 over-its1993tally. Significantly, while the BJP's poll percentage has gone down by one and a half per cent in comparison of 1996 Lok Sabha pollgains, the SP increased its poll percentage by 8percent.

All those who were induced out of the BSP by Mr. Mulayam Singh Yadav to his party have lost the poll.

On SP-JD Relations in UP

The State JD charges that the Samaj wadi Party not only did not extend its might to 'help it to bag a good number of seats, but on the other hand ensured its defeat in several seats. Its leaders point out that while the Congress has benefited from the alliance with the BSP to increase its tally from 28in 1993to33 in 1996,the JD’sfigure has come down to a mere 7 against 27 in 1996, notwithstanding extensive tours of UP by Prime Minister Deve Gowda.