The National Democratic Alliance has done well Now that it has a majority of about 30 seats in Parliament devotees of stability will wish them a long stint in government ... Many will, nevertheless, recall that the previous BJP-led alliance had a majority, with its allies, of about 20.

Factoring in the four Bihar constituencies where elections are pending, the stability quotient is up by about 15 points. This is bolstered, public opinion now says, by the absence of the likes of Jayalalitha and Subramanian Swami in the coalition. So far so good. But admouthing this pair, a justifiable pastime, is not exactly a great feat of political analysis. It does not follow from their delinquencies that other politicians in the soon to be ruling alliance or elsewhere are paragons of virtue. Jayalalitha ditched the government not because of some genetic volatility - she did so because vital interests were threatened.

And the BJP let her slip out of the alliance only after George Fernandes had demonstrated that his unmatched skills at grovelling were not enough to convince the grande dame that she was being given enough protection.

So much for history, This time around the BJP's alliance has all of 24 constituents. Most of them are on a personal level less objectionable than Jayalalitha. But they are subject to the compulsions of politics - and when vital interests are threatened they may well emulate (her).

Among likelv candidates are former cronies like Vaiko and, indubitably, the five-man brigade led by Om Prakash Chautala.

Apart from these loose cannons, there is likely to be a political contest with the Janata Dal (United) ... But the JD-U does not have too many option given the current state of the third front. The Alliance is relatively safer this time.

The foregoing is not a prophecy of doom ... The ... coalition will in all probability survive and given minor miracles, could well go the distance. The main problem for the BJP's coalition managers will not be the acquisitiveness or other delinquencies of alliance partners.

The principal problem is the party itself. Issuing sanitised manifestos is relatively easy. But reining in the Sangh Parivar is another matter altogether.

The Sangh Parivar is unlikely to take a charitable line on Vajpayee's coalition compulsions. Majoritarian fascism is intrinsically linked to the Sangh Parivar's identity - if it gives up the Ram mandir issue and turn itself into a harmless constitutionalist organisation it will cease to exist. And the Sangh Parivar is the backbone of the BJP.

Both Advani and Vajpayee know that - the only difference is that Advani, with the likes of Govindacharya and Murli Manohar, refuse to be coy about their politics, while Vajpayee beset with the responsibility of running a coalition, attempts to make the correct moderate noises.

But despite Vajpayee's much hyped stature as a statesman, he is also an RSS man of 50 years' vintage.

The ideology of Hindutva lies at the heart of the BJP's agenda, and, indeed, political existence. It is not up to Vajpayee to reinvent the party assuming that he has the will and the desire ... In the Hindi heartland and the bastions of Hindu fundamentalism in western India particularly, but also elsewhere in the country, the BJP exists because it espouses militant Hindutva to create a Hindu political community. This is also true of "progressive" Bengal into which the BJP has made inroads, by leave of the self-proclaimed Marxists ...

Once the Sangh Parivar starts playing up its agenda through speech and action, some of the BJP allies will be forced to review their support to or partnership in the alliance. The TDP, which has built a base in AP on a modernist development-centric platform, will probably be unwilling to be seen abetting the medieval politics of the Parivar. Naidu has clearly retained the confidence. of the Muslims - but that is principally because he has supped with the devil with a long spoon. This confidence, as Naidu has acknowledged, cannot be taken for granted.

The DMK too has joined the alliance under compulsion. There is no "natural" affinity between them and the BJP. If the BJP fails to rein in its own lunatic fringe as well as the Sangh Parivar, the DMK's support will be severely tested. The same applies to Mamata Banerjee. Her relationship with the BJP, as she makes abundantly apparent, is based on her allegiance to Vajpayee. If she wants to make a serious bid for power in West Bengal she cannot be seen to condone the excesses of the BJP ... For the moment, however, the NDA seems safe, especially with the Congress's debacle.

But for the moment the liberal and progressive space that India's flawed democracy has successfully defended, despite many vicissitudes, is threatened ... (Source: The Statesman, 11 October, 1999)