The alliance led by Laloo Prasad Yadav has got a severe drubbing from the BJP-Samata Party combine in the state.
In fact, the BJP could manage only a marginal increase of 1 seat as compared to its tally of 18 in 1996. The Samata Party's tally, on the other hand, has gone up from 4 (in 1996) to 10 this time.
The RJD and allies could prevent a split in their vote only in north Bihar. However, the left parties, which had won four seats in the last elections, have been routed. Apart from this, the Samajwadi Party, which had won one seat in Bihar last time, has also drawn a blank.
While the BJP candidates won a number of seats in the tribal belt, the candidates of its alliance partner – the Samata Party - (won) most of the seats in central Bihar ..
... The RJD has captured most of the seats in north Bihar ... Wresting three seats from the BJP and one from the Samata Party, the RJD's overall tally in the region remained eight. (Source: The Times of India, 6 March, 1998)
The election results from Bihar, apart from establishing that Laloo Yadav has retained his clout, have shown clearly that the JD as well as the CPI are decimated ... but could ensure the victory of the Congress(I) candidates in a couple of constituencies in Northern Bihar - Madhubani and Begusarai. ...
The CPI was mauled in a similar fashion in Balia and Jehanabad constituencies ... While in Balia, the CPI candidate could secure only the third position - the RJD wrested the seats and the BJP came number two – in Jehanabad the party finished a poor fourth ... Significantly, the CPI(ML) could secure three times more than the CPI's vote share. It is clear that the CPI has lost its base to both Laloo and the CPI(ML) all over Bihar.
While all these establish the fact that charges of corruption against Laloo Yadav and his consequent isolation in Bihar's politics have hardly affected his political clout, there are far more significant signals that the election results from Bihar convey. These are the social realignments ... in the state, in other words, a realignment of caste groups.
.. Janata Dal (once) represented the aspirations of two important social groups in the Hindi heartland – the Rajputs and the Yadavs and a section of the Muslims - against the Bhoomihar-Brahmin-Dalit combination who were with the Congress(I) at that stage.
The alignment changed fast and the Rajputs sided with the Bhumihars protesting against Mandalisation ... This new social alliance - essentially the upper castes - found the BJP a shade better than the Congress(I), whose fortunes wee declining and in the churning that took place in Bihar, the BJP could establish itself as the only force against Laloo Yadav's Janata Dal, and the Samata Party joined the anti-Laloo combine; the 1996 elections were fought on these lines and Laloo took a beating.
This, however, has been reversed. Laloo Yadav has managed to retain his clout even in the changed situation and a substantial section of the Rajputs were brought over to the Laloo bandwagon by none other than the symbol of "Rajput pride" Anand Mohan Singh ... The Rajputs have once again joined the battle against their traditional rivals, the Bhumihars.
This was also borne out by the Congress(I) victory in Begusarai ... This realignment of caste groups - the return of the Rajputs to his side helped Laloo Yadav retain his 16 seats in this election and enabled the Congress(I) to add Madhubani and Begusarai to its tally in North Bihar in addition to Katihar in the North-East.
Meanwhile, the political discourse in the Southern districts - the Jharkhand area - being entirely different and caste-based alignment being alien there, Laloo Yadav has never been able to establish any base for himself. That perhaps explains the virtual sweep ... by the BJP. (V. Krishna Ananth in The Hindu, 7 3.1998)
Dalit politics underwent a tremendous change in the .. Lok Sabha elections, so much so that it overrode the backward politics and shaped the victory of many stalwarts, and at the same time, left its hitherto champions in political oblivion. The Left parties, which had been winning the elections with the support of the Dalit vote bank and a section of the intermediary castes, have been wiped out ... reflecting a definite change in their stance towards them.
It has also brought to the fore the inner contradictions among the Dalit leadership and their dependence on the party in power. Earlier it was the Congress which ruled the country for over 40 years with their support and ... (later) the so-called champions of social justice led by Laloo Prasad Yadav became their sole leader.
The split in the JD leading to the formation of the RJD effected a shift in the Dalit vote bank ... Though RJD chief Laloo Yadav tried to make up for his loss in terms of the Dalits with the powerful Rajputs in certain pockets his nominees in many other constituencies had to suffer because of the disenchantment of the Dalits. The election results established beyond doubt that ... Yadav and his erstwhile allies - the CPI and CPM - were no longer favourites to the (Dalits).
Yadav is himself responsible for distancing the 23 per cent consolidated vote bank, from his fold by launching vituperative attack on Paswan, who wielded a considerable clout among the Dalits, at least in Bihar, even since his emergence on the national political scene. Apparently, it was an error of judgement on part of Yadav to take the Dalit vote bank for granted especially.
The tactic understanding between the Samata-BJP and the JD worked and the Dalits in lieu of the support its leader had from the other sections reciprocated in other constituencies by supporting the saffron brigade. (Source: The Hindustan Times, 9 March, 1998)