Situation Report - Uttar Pradesh


 

In a sharp political polarisation in Uttar Pradesh, the BJP (57), its ally, the Samata Party (2) and an Independent they backed together bagged 60 of the 85 Lok Sabha seats, while the Samajwadi Party got 20, the BSP 4 and the SJP 1 (Chandra Shekhar in Ballia). The Congress(I), which till a decade ago was the main party in UP, seen as the home-State of the Nehru-Gandhi family, was totally rejected by the electorate in 1998 and the JD and the Left parties fared no better

This time there was no saffron wave ... The party's slogan was "stable government, able prime minister" ... I paid dividend ... The BJP was able to retain as many as 39 of its old seats, while losing 11 to the SP and 2 to BSP.

The BJP won 18 new seats, while the Samata Party opened its account with 2 seats. The Congress(I) and the Congress(T) between them ... lost to the BJP. ...

BJP's victory in Rampur this time is ... remarkable, since the constituency has the highest percentage of Muslim voters in the state (42%t) and all the main parties including the BJP had fielded Muslim candidates there. The BJP's new MP is a young activist and a votary of  building a Rama temple at Ayodhya for which he had offered Kar Seva in 1990, inviting the ire of his community. The Cong(I) candidate, Begum Noor Bano (was defeated).

Among the BJP casualties are Vinay Katiyar, former Bajrang Dal chief, who lost in Faizabad to the SP's Mitrasen Yadav and Lt. Gen. Prakashmani Tripathi in Deoria. The BJP also lost Kheri, Hardoi, Ghazipur, Jaunpur, Kannauj, Jalesar, Bijnore (SC), Mohanlalganj, Gonda, Bahraich, Balrampur and Chail.

The SP's losses included Amroha, Kairana, Etawah, Aonla, Barabanki, Dumriaganj, Bansgaon (SC), and Mirzapur ... The scats of Fatehpur, Banda and Shahabad were wrested by the BJP from the BSP. The BSP in turn wrested Misrikh (SC) and Bahraich from the BJP and Azamgarh from the SP. The only seat the BSP retained out of the 6 it won in 1996 was Akbarpur (SC) by slender margin (with) Ms. Mayawati ... The party lost Saidpur and Sambhal to the SP. But, the biggest setback for the BSP came in Saharanpur where the party chief Kanshi Ram, lost by a big margin.

Mulayam Singh has demonstrated that all other constituents of the UF do not matter in UP. The only seat he left to any constituent was Varanasi - to the CPI(M). With all other constituents of the UF wiped out and the BSP managing to secure only 4 scats, 2 on the personal appeal of its candidates - Arif Mohammed Khan in Bahraich and Akbar Ahmcd "Dumpy" in Azamgarh, the SP has emerged as the sole challenger to the saffron party in UP.  (The Hindu, 4 March, 1998)

 

 

The BJP ... has won most of the seats where Muslims constitute a sizable chunks of the electorates, particularly in western Uttar Pradesh.

The BJP wrested the three Muslim-dominated seats at Rampur, Amroha and Kairana of western UP, conceding only Bijnore (SC) to the Samajwadi Party.

.. The other constituencies with a large number of Muslim voters which returned BJP candidates are Saharanpur, Amroha, Meerut, Bulandshahr, Kairana, Aligarh, Bareilly, Pilibhit, Shahjahanpur, Farrukhabad, Khurja, Muzaffarnagar, Ghaziabad-Hapur, Khalilabad and Machhlishahr. The party lost Moradabad by a slender margin to the SP and in Sambhal, only the personality of Mulayam Singh Yadav could ensure SP victory.

In Lucknow ... in the Muslim-dominated Assembly segment of Lucknow (west), Vajpayee polled 96,534 votes against 56,893 by Ali.

Vajpayee polled the highest number of votes in UP -a record 4,31,734 against 2,12,612 by Muzaffar Ali ...                                          (Source: P.K. Roy in The Hindu, 5 March, 1998)

 Western UP

The BJP has swept the entire Meerut, Saharanpur, Garhwal and Kumaon division of UP wrenching the Lok Sabha seats from ... Ajit Singh in Baghpat, Narian Dutt Tiwari in Naini Tal, Satpal Maharaj in Pauri Garhwal and holding on to Saharanpur by defeating the BSP supremo Kanshi Ram.

In Moradabad division, the BJP put up an excellent  performance by wresting Rampur from Begum Noor Bano of the Congress and .... Amroha from the SP.

The Samajwadi Party won three seats in Moradabad division with Sambhal (Mulayam Singh Yadav), Moradabad and Bijnore. ... That the Samajwadi Party candidates were runners up in most places indicates the near total polarisation of Muslim votes in its favour. The BSP, another keen contender in the political arena seems to have polled a good percentage of Dalit votes making the divisions on the caste and communal lines complete in this part of the State, feel political observers ..                                                         (Source: The Hindu, 4 March, 1998)

 

Uttar Pradesh

The 1998 Lok Sabha election in Uttar Pradesh has turned out to be a straight combat between arch rivals BJP and the SP ... The way the two major players have wiped out most of the others looked quite unbelievable. A whopping 5.7 per cent swing for the BJP and a 6.7 per cent increase in the SP vote have ensured this. Computer calculations on the basis of votes polled by top three candidates in each seat reveal that the gains of the BJP have come about mainly at the expense of the Congress.

The SP, on the other hand, has performed remarkably because of the poor showing of its UF partners and the Bahujan Samaj Party. Though the BSP gained 1.9 per cent votes, it lost two seats over 1996, while the Congress lost nearly 4 per cent votes from the paltry 8.14 per cent it polled in 1996. That these elections have proved to be an exclusive BJP-SP affair is proved by the way these parties have clinched seats from each other. Though the saffron party has gained five seats as compared to 1996, it lost its hold on 15. The party could retain just 37 of the 52 seats. Of these 15 seats, the SP has grabbed 13 whereas the BSP has snatched the remaining two. Similarly of the 11 seats lost by the SP. nine have a saffron flag flying now. The SP lost one seat to the Samata Party and another the BSP. Apart from the SP, the Congress has contributed to the BJP's 20 new seats, losing all the five seats it held.

Three BSP and two Congress(T) seats were also captured by the saffron party. The BSP could retain just one of the seats it captured in 1996. Similarly, the SP could also retain just five of the 16 seats it won in 1996.

The number two and number three positions shared also proved that the BJP and the SP have dominated the elections. BJP candidates came second in 22 constituencies, whereas they were pushed to the third place only in four. The SP was second-seed in 37 contests and its candidates were third in the race for 18 scats.

The Congress was nowhere to be seen. Its candidates came second in just six constituencies whereas they were placed third in five other seats.                    (Dilip Awasthi in The Pioneer)





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