Congress is still a major political player with a wide organisational base. It is likely to benefit the most from fragmentation of democratic politics. ... As we approach the 1998 elections, we seem to be facing (a) backlash against the upsurge of the grassroots phenomenon. A process from which the Congress can only benefit.

This reversal is associated with three distinct trends. No single 'major' party is able to hold power on its own and is being forced to seek allies from diverse sources -by splitting parties, buying individuals and simple horse-trading. Second, there is a growing divergence between the wielders of power at the party-level and their social base. Third, the continuing tussle between parties and party-led coalitions on the issues of secularism and representation of the poor and the minorities.

Every major party is now going to experience splits ... on the one hand and search for new alignments on the other, neither of these producing stability, and instead, more likely, greater instability.

The BJP's claim of providing greater stability and better government on the basis of expanding its ranks is only likely to produce a politics of still greater fragmentation and growing division within its own ranks ...

... Playing down its traditional communal stand ... really means the adoption of the Kalyan Singh model by no less a leader than Atal Behari Vajpayee at the national level. Which makes the BJP the biggest culprit in bringing down the democratic culture ...

The weak point ... is that it relies almost entirely on buying up small and insignificant parties and almost wholly marginalised individuals ...

... Likely to benefit the most from this fragmentation of democratic politics, contrary to current speculations, is the Congress ... It has taken some major steps towards consolidating its own forte in two major respects: First, it is finally taking steps to woo back into its corpus the poor and underprivileged sections, as well as the minorities, whom it had alienated ... And second, it has finally and clearly reasserted its ideological affinity with secularism.

... The alliance between the Rashtraya Janata Dal and the Congress, together with major constituents of the United Front, provides a way of stopping the BJP from its thoroughly amoral attempt to grab power somehow ...

There is a third dimension. The Congress leadership is taking a hard stand vis-a-vis 'rebels' ... at the same time calling it quits with Sonia Gandhi. All this – if followed through - is likely to bring the Congress back to its earlier course of being a left of Centre party, which is once again willing to widen its social base and join forces with the politics of the grassroots.

The fact that most of the supporters of the BJP and those willing to jump on its bandwagon ... are essentially upper caste Hindutva types should give the Congress its long-lost mandate ...

(Source: The Times of India, 28 December, 1998)