So thorough is the BJP's defeat in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Delhi that numbers alone cannot capture its quality ...

A second feature of the BJP's defeat in the three states -among the few that have so significant "third force" - is its generalised nature. There is not one sub-region in them where it did not suffer an erosion of support ... This suggests that the issues influencing the voter were not location-specific, but national in character. The BJP's performance cannot be attributed to factionalism, burden of incumbency or poor campaigning ..

The BJP's comprehensive defeat cannot be explained by vote transfers at the margin, tiny numbers belonging to specific castes moving away, or high food prices ... Such negative votes can only be a punishment for misgovernance and base erosion. The BJP- which grew at breakneck speed from two MPs in1984 to over 170 -has transited from expansion to decline. As it contracts, its base may be shrinking rapidly in the North and centre-wet, with growing polarity between the upper caste rich and the low-caste poor (who are moving away.

Micro-level empirical investigation will conclusively establish the causes of this. But going by published surveys, especially CSDS profiles, the voter punished the BJP for misgovernance in social and economic policies; hard-line adventurism on issues of internal and external security;and controversial stands on education and religious minorities. The BJP makes claims about suchita, suraksha, samarasta etc. but delivers little. Its government is as unaccountable as any other. The factionalism between Vajpayee and Advani, as highlighted by the media, undermined its credibility as a disciplined party. The controversy of Christian proselytisation and the mandatory recitation of the Saraswati Vandana in schools ... lost the BJP considerable sympathy in many quarters.

The Pokhran blasts which lowered India's stature and narrowed foreign policy options, has proved unpopular ... Its Kashmir policy is a disaster; and its emphasis on order through extreme forms of punishment is unrealistic. For many, the BJP, appears to be a party that is highly successful when pushing exclusivist agenda, but a failure when it comes to acting consensually. This politics based on exclusivism has offended not only the minorities, but also many of liberal-spirited Hindus and sizeable sections of the non-savarna castes the BJP once attracted. Without the alienation of these groups, it is hard to explain vote swings as high as 16 per cent..

Mid-term Poll

With this defeat, the BJP has lost the moral authority and is coalition has become shaky. The Congress, by contrast, has made significant gains: votes, credibility and support of some groups it had ... alienated ... However, the Congress' gains will prove temporary unless it rethinks the policies it has pursued over the past decade ... This means it must demonstrate a firm commitment to secularism, and revise its elitist social and economic policies. Second, the Congress must not hastily try to dislodge the BJP-led coalition by putting together an unstable alliance.

Cobbling together a front of disparate elements which are its own regional rivals, and getting it to rule without a clear mandate ... can only serve to discredit the Congress and confirm suspicions that it is back to its old ways, thus facilitating the return of the force that the electorate seems in the mood to reject ... Congress should .. confront the BJP on communalism, prices, etc ... Its best political chances lie in distancing itself from the BJP and preventing it from damaging democratic institutions and compromising society's interests.                      (Source: The Times of India, 1 December, 1998)

Indian Express On the Reasons for the Rout – Rising Prices:

Backbreaking rise in vegetable prices hit the people hard. Vajpayee's explanation that this was because of "natural" reasons didn't stick. He then blamed it on 45-year Congress rule, it backfired.

Rebels Within: Image of disciplined party suffered. The Sahib Singh Vs Madan Lal Khurana feud in Delhi forced party to press panic button, prop up Sushma Swaraj but it was too late.

Pokhran Backfires: Nuclear blasts, expected to fire the national imagination, became damp squib. Pak tests, sanctions and finally prices blew it away.

Harsh Hindutva: Violent attacks on Christians and Muslims in Gujarat spread fear among minorities in neighbouring Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. Forced deportation of Bengalis from Mumbai, the move to make Hindu prayers compulsory in schools further alienated the minorities.

Double anti-Incumbency: Coalition at Centre created more news with its troubles than with its agenda. Breakdown of civic amenities in Delhi, crimes against women in Rajasthan, the state governments had no one to blame.