If all goes smoothly, there is steady growth, no social strife, no internal crisis, then the balancing act (of the NDA) could carry on. But in India, such things do not happen ... In the near future, at least three issues could trigger off a major crisis leading to a breakdown of the delicate balances that hold the present government and its external support systems together. (For external support, the RSS and the VHP are important). The first the economic ...
A second issue could be the Ram temple. The BJP is getting desperate in Uttar Pradesh, where its chances in next year's Assembly elections are rated poorly. If the Samajwadi Party (SP) led by Mulayam Singh Yadav and the Rashtriya Kranti Party (RKP) led by Kalyan Singh join hands, they could do extremely well. The BJP is toying with an extraordinarily devious tactic; transport a replica or room-sized model of the planned temple from Rajasthan to Ayodhya and generate huge hysterical celebrations and mobilisation on the way, with aartis, fiery speeches, and riotous Utsav’s around the yatra. Since this is not the real temple, but only a decoy it gambles, no one will really ban or oppose the whole thing. At the same time, the decoy will deliver votes. This will pose a ... dilemma for the NDA and also for the anti-BJP opposition; will they go along with the deception and buy into legalistic myths, or will they staunchly oppose the exercise because of its calculated objective of widening the communal divide; promoting hate speech and fomenting violence?
A third issue is "internal" to the Parivar; to put it bluntly, when will the RSS take cognizance of the goings on in the Prime Minister's Office (PMO) ... The RSS is not the embodiment of probity and rectitude. Its reputation has taken more than one knock after some of its life-long pracharaks were reportedly found to have amassed substantial wealth. Even so, it will not find it palatable to have the open association of its creature, the BJP, with the (middlemen) of the world. But how will it broach the issue with Vajpayee? Can it afford to dump the BJP, or pull down the NDA?
It is far from clear how the different actors in this rather unseemly drama will play out their roles. Matters could get gravely complicated if Vajpayee's already delicate health takes a downturn or his attention-span further shrinks ... (This) could precipitate a huge fight inside the NDA. The BJP would be hard placed to find an acceptable substitute or deputy for Vajpayee.
That is where the internal differentiation in the NDA would come into play. Some members of the NDA have maintained their broadly "secular" political identity. But people like George Fernandes have emerged as Hindutva's apologists.
One thing is undeniable. There are serious tensions within the BJP, between the BJP and the rest of the Parivar, and between the BJP and the NDA. There is no easy way of resolving or containing them. The RSS, the most proactive and self-willed agency among all, is itself on the horns of a dilemma. It does not know whether and how to confront the NDA on issues of identity without risking a total loss of power and marginalisation for Hindutva ... (Source: The Frontline, 23 June, 2000)
