NATIONAL POLITICS

Neerja Chowdhury on Secular Alliance to Contain BJP

The explicit message of the civic elections in Uttar Pradesh cannot be missed that the BJP has retained its vote bank, the Congress is even less in the picture than was and that the SP, the BSP and the Janata Dal will have to come to some kind of an electoral understanding if they are serious about winning the country's largest State, which has determined fortunes in the Delhi durbar.

The BJP understands this only too well. Its leaders are aware of the potency of the SP-BSP-JD cocktail. That is why there was a toning down of the initial euphoria about the BJP victory. The message could not have been lost on Mulayam Singh. His decision to join hands with the Janata Dal, after having talked tough for months, coincided with the civic poll results.There are implicit messages emanating from the recent elections in UP (at least from whatever information is available so far) which may have a bearing on the evolution of poll combinations and party strategies in the weeks to come.

After the Gujarat developments, the results have acted as a tonic for the disheartened BJP cadre.

The results have also belied the apprehension that the BJP's decision to back the BSP government would cost it the support of its traditional upper caste vote bank winning eight out of 11 corporations (directly elected mayors) has been a positive affirmation of support by the upper castes for the party in the State's urban areas. The upper castes have in all probability become a transferable vote bank for the BJP.

There is a growing realization among the Brahmins, Rajputs and Bhumihars of the State that the BJP needs the additional support of other communities for it to romp home and they may have to take a back seat (temporarily) for the restoration of power (to them).

This could compel the BJP to field a larger number of candidates belonging, say to the Dalits, backward and intermediate castes like the Jats, Kurmis, Lodhs, Nishads, Kolis and dhobis, in the coming elections in an attempt to win them over by putting up a fellow castepersons, who with the vote of the upper castes, would ensure the party victory. Mayawati’s stint as chief minister has increased the Jatav aspirations for political power.

The BSP, however, has lost ground in eastern UP and the Bundelkhand region and its desertion by the Kurmis is one reason for its defeat.

The Kurmis have suddenly become quite crucial in UP in the forthcoming electoral battle. The Muslims obviously swung to the BSP in western UP because they saw it as a potential winner against the saffron force and this was only one example of the Muslim behavior in the election.

Their first preference was for a Muslim candidate (they also voted for Muslims put up by the Congress in some places) and then for one who was best placed to defeat the BJP. They did not vote automatically for the SP as expected.

The recent poll results are bound to give an impetus to new combinations. One possible scenario is the coming together of the Janata Dal, the SP and the BSP, which would give the BJP cause for worry. A section of the JD, including V.P. Singh, favors such an alliance.

The JD leaders may try for seat adjustments with the SP on the one hand and the BSP on the other, not unlike the arrangement they had evolved with the BJP and the Left, which considered each other untouchable, to facilitate "one to one contests" and prevent the division of votes.

Scenario two is what Ajit Singh is working on and that is to go in for a tie-up between the Congress, the BSP and the "Apna Dal" recently floated by Kurmi leaders.

Scenario three is the reunification of the two Congress factions with Sonia Gandhi playing an active role in bringing this about, but this does not seem to be on the cards.

Scenario four is the Tewari group making common cause with Mulayam and the JD. There are efforts in this direction. A three or a four way division of votes, however, would ultimately benefit the BJP. With its 34 per cent votes in the State, it an comfortably romp home just as the Congress did for years, provided the rest are divided. (Source: The Indian Express, 4 December, 1995)

Shiv Sena: Views of Bal Thackeray

 "I would not allow NRI Sindhis in Hong Kong to settle down in Bombay after 1997, when the British colony will pass into Chinese hands.

The Sindhis should not expect too much of Bombay's leader if they are looking for a place to settle after 1997, and have not yet acquired a passport.

We have our own problems. This is not an orphanage, neither what you call a Dharamshala (free shelter), where whatever people are kicked out from the rest of the world should come and get settled here".

"When they were over there, did they ever think of us and the problems we are facing? The catastrophe we are facing? The drought? Did they come to donate? When there was an earthquake, nobody helped anybody".

When the Chinese come to Hong Kong, you will run to me. That's human, you will be happy (to be here) despite my terrorism, my so-called bully- dictatorship. You will be much happy because you will be getting freedom from me".

(Source: The South China Morning Post)