Elections '99 underscore the paradigm shift that has visibly taken place in political representation. Communities have become more conscious, yet more segmented and, at the same time, more aware that they have to reach out to other groups to be successful. The Dalit assertion is particularly pronounced this time. In Tamil Nadu, the TMC has forged a new Dalit-Muslim combine, bringing together militant Dalit organisations like the Puthiya Tamizhagam and Dalit Panthers, which had boycotted polls for 12 years, with other fringe groups. The Madiga-Mala conflict has sharpened in Andhra Pradesh. Mayawati has further consolidated her grip over the Dalits in Uttar Pradesh Ram Vilas Paswan could easily shift to the BJP because of the support he enjoys from the Pasis in Bihar.

Even the upper castes have voted tactically in many places this time. There were reports that the Brahmins swung back to the BJP in Allahabad when they realised that a division in their vote (between Rita Bahuguna of the Congress and Murli Manohar Joshi of the BJP) may enable the BSP to romp home.

The OBC revolution, which started over 25 years ago in the north and 50 years earlier in Tamil Nadu, when the Periyar-led Dravidian movement challenged the Brahminical order in the south, is moving into the next phase now. The most backward of the OBCs (they comprise 30 per cent in Bihar) and the Dalits are asking why the fruits of Mandal should be cornered only by the more well-to-do and better organised OBCs (synonymous with the Yadavs today) ... Banking on this sentiment (a party may) field a Mallah in a constituency, in the hope of an accretion to its vote bank ...

The BJP is finding it unusually difficult to deal with the turbulence within its own ranks in UP, with increased consciousness among the backward classes ... Since the party has been an avowedly upper caste outfit for a long time, these communities are finding it more difficult to make way for others than might have been the case, say, in a party like the Congress which too has been controlled by the forward castes.

The BJP will have its task cut out in UP in the months to come. Like a bone in the throat, Kalyan Singh has got stuck in the BJP's gullet. It is neither able to spit it out nor swallow it. Dethroning him will push him into Mulayam Singh's arms in what could become a backward consolidation, with the potential of pushing the BJP to the sidelines. For the upper castes are likely then to swing to a Muslim-backed Congress. Retaining him would deepen the simmering discontent in the upper castes, pushing them increasingly into the arms of the Congress.

... In the seventies and even the eighties, the newly 'emerging groups led protest movements in opposition to majority governments. These groups are now in the power set-up, representing various interests and identities and fighting for space. The protest movements on issues have disappeared.

Successive prime ministers in the last ten years have learnt that power sharing is the key to the management of contradictions and to survival ... (Source: The Indian Express, 4 October, 1999)