The Mandal winds have finally reached Madhya Pradesh, a state which had been remarkably free of caste- based politics of the type that has emerged in UP and Bihar. Not that caste hasn't been a factor in Madhya Pradesh politics but so far, it was confined to local-level arrangements.

However, in Polls '98,the OBCs - who form 40 per cent of the population - are increasingly assertive. And there has been an awakening among the SCs and the STs, who add up to just under one-third of the population. ...

The OBCs are not happy at the Congress decision to field seven Brahmin candidates in the nine general seats in Raipur district. The Congress used to prop four to five Brahmins here in every election ... Swung these tickets in the CWC by aligning with Digvijay Singh. Reason: both wanted to cut out those like Ajit Jogi who's emerging as a tribal leader in the Chhatisgarh region. Arjun Singh, too, went along since he wanted a ticket for his son. ...

The OBC awakening is not leaving the BJP untouched. Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee's niece, Karuna Shukla, a sitting MLA, is fighting with her back to the wall in Baloda Bazar in Raipur district ... because of the OBC factor. Purushotam Sahu, a backward leader who was a claimant for the BJP ticket there, has revolved and is contesting as an Independent.

The Kurmis, who were at one time with the Congress have in recent months moved towards the BJP .. So have the Sahus, who are 'telis'. The Yadavs and Nishads are more with the Congress. In difference to the growing  consciousness of the tribais in the state both the BJP and the Congress were forced to nominate tribals as party chiefs in Madhya Pradesh ....

Arjun Singh had made a case for a Backward Chief Minister when Digvijay Singh took over five years go, and subsequently Subhash Yadav was made deputy chief minister. But the OBCs, Dalits and tribals, who were satisfied with tokenistn earlier, increasingly want their due  share in the political set up. Along with the minorities, they total 93 per cent of Chhatisgarh's population.

It is a paradox that while there is growing awareness in these communities, and this includes the SCs, the Bahujan Samaj Party which first raised the cry, 'Vote Hamara Raj Tumaha Nahin Chalega' appears to be on the decline in Chhatisgarh ... The exodus of top leaders from the BSP and the party's image of striking deals with mainstream parties have also done some damage ..

(Source: The Indian Express, 24 November, 1998)

The Hindustan Times Situation Report on Rajasthan

The overwhelming support of the Muslims to Congress nominees in Rajasthan was one of the factors responsible for three fourth majority of the party in the recent Assembly elections in Rajasthan. ...

Ajmer East constituency is dominated by Muslims who were totally upset with the BJP Government. The turnout of Muslims was beyond the expectations of the Congress leaders ..

... It was for the first time that Congress gave tickets to Muslim candidates in at least four constituencies.

Earlier, the Congress high command had given Rajya Sabha ticket to Dura Mian which sent good signal to the Muslim community about the intentions of Congress party. Smaller parties like BSP, Janata Dal, Samajwadi Party, Haryana Rashtriya Lok Dal, CPM and CPI got a rude shock during the Assembly elections in Rajasthan.

Out of 111 candidates of BSP, 102 lost their security deposits. The party won only two seats. Similarly Janata Dal had won six seats in1993 polls which went down to three. It had given tickets to about 68 candidates.

The CPM, CPI and Janata Dl had forged an alliance but it did not work because of the Congress wave. The CPM ma aged to win one seat and the CPI drew a blank. In 1993 Assembly elections, JD had polled 6.87%, CPM 1.9%, CPI 3% and BSP 2.13%. The yotes of all these parties declined sharply.

... Congress had polled 44.45% in February 1998 Lok Sabha elections and established the lead in123 Assembly segments whereas it got 44.87% in recent Assembly polls and it won 150 seats.

On the other hand, BJP got 41 65% of votes in February parliamentary elections and managed to register lead in 56 segments. It polled 33.31% (loss of 8.3% of votes) and won 33 seats only:

Out of 16 women nominees of Congress, 13 emerged victorious but eight BJP women candidates ... all lost their seats ... There was huge turnout of the women voters ... for Congress nominees. Top leaders of Congress claimed that it was due to Mrs. Sonia Gandhi that women supported the party.

MP: Assembly Elections, 1998

The Hindu Situation Report on Delhi

The en block voting by the minorities in the Delhi polls proved to be the undoing of the BJP in a large number of Assembly segments. Similarly, the non-involvement of the Akali Dal (Badal) Delhi unit leadership in actively campaigning for the BJP is being attributed to the massive swing of Sikh voters in favour of the Congress(I) ....

Most Assembly seats dominated by the Muslim population saw a massive turnout. It seems that the minorities were not only disenchanted with the ruling party but were apprehensive about the 'agenda' being pursued by the BJP- led coaliti on at the Centre and came out ... to ensure the victory of the Congress(I).

The recent controversies over compulsory singing of 'Vande Mataram' and 'Saraswati Vandana' also created a sense of insecurity among them and Christians who felt that the time had come to put a break on the BJP roller-coaster.

Muslims, Sikhs and Christians voted decisively in favour of one party is proved by the fact that the presence of candidates of the RJD, the SP and the BSP made little difference and there was no division of votes, as happened in the past. The failure of the BSP or the SP to secure the backing of Muslims once again signalled the return of one-sided voting by the community. ... As for Christians, the community felt that it was deliberately being targeted by some 'Hindutva' elements in the BJP in addition to the physical attacks by militant organisations like the VHP and the Bajrang Dal ... Though the Christian leadership did not ask the community to vote in favour of any particular party, Christians were asked to come out and participate in the democratic exercise in strength.