Neena Vyas On BJP's Early Starts


 

The long queue of those jostling to get into the BJP is becoming longer by the day, and those waiting include all kinds of characters - those who had calculated that they would not get the ticket from the Congress, others who saw no hope of winning on the Congress ticket ... some Muslims who see a grand chance of even becoming ministers at the Centre since there is a dearth of "good" Muslim candidates in the BJP and, of course, the evergreen opportunists ...

In two quick successive blows, the BJP succeeded in creating for itself openings in Orissa (21 Lok Sabha seats) and Tamil Nadu (39 seats) where it had none ...

The BJD has already announced some sort of an understanding with its ally, Samata Party ... In West Bengal, the BJP has won half the battle, with Mamata Banerjee virtually asking for and getting the expulsion orders from the Congress. Now the party is sitting pretty waiting for Banerjee to walk into its parlour.

The big advantage is that in some of these major States where its existence was negligible, the BJP has been given a credible political platform ... Right from Assam to Tamil Nadu across all the States on the eastern coast plus Karnataka, the BJP held only seven seats (six of these in Karnataka), over a spread of 200 Lok Sabha constituencies. There was hardly any hope that it would fare any better in the 1998 elections. But suddenly with the help of alliances, this region has been opened up.

Even with the help of its new partners, the BJP may find it difficult even to cross the double digit figure.

The real battle for the BJP will be in the Hindi heartland and the western belt of Maharashtra and Gujarat. The important question is, will the BJP be able to hold on to what it has here? Will it keep its 52 MPs,    even if it does not add more, in Uttar Pradesh, and its 28 in Madhya Pradesh, not to speak of Haryana and Rajasthan? ... In Maharashtra, there are rumblings of a grand anti-BJP alliance and in Gujarat, the party has been caught unawares with more than a possibility of a simultaneous Assembly elections.

The race has not even begun, the parties are just getting ready, waiting for the whistle to blow. But the main advantage for the BJP is that it has been practising hard, and it has already won the first round of heats for the electoral olympiad by creating a favourable climate. But will it be able to sustain its campaign till the last vote is cast? In the marathon electoral event of 1998, will the player with an early start emerge the winner ?.(Source: The Hindu, 29 December, 1997)





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