NATIONAL POLITICS
CPI(M): Views of H.S. Surjeet
In 1989, the opposition formation which came up was the result of an upsurge. Some Congressmen, led by V.P. Singh, who had left that party became the rallying point, the focus of attraction. It was only subsequently that there was division in the JD because of the disruption created by Chandra Shekhar.
The JD was in disarray and periodically, people kept leaving the party. Then the constituents of the National Front began to quit - first the AGP, then the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagham (DMK). And more recently, the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) has split, causing yet more problems.
It is because of these reasons that the Left has had to take the initiative. Our consistent position has been to work to defeat both the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). We don't want the BJP to exploit the discontent in the country with the Congress. So, we are making our best efforts to rally the non-Congress and non-BJP forces. The Communist Party of India (CPI) and we met recently and we have decided to intensify our efforts we are inconstant touch.
We are currently engaged in gathering all the secular forces together because we see a tremendous possibility of defeating the Congress and the BJP. But we have to admit that no clear picture has emerged as yet. On February 19, we achieved some success when (JD President) Laloo Prasad Yadav and (SP President) Mulayam Singh Yadav met and indicated that they were prepared to go together. With this decision, we have crossed a very big hurdle because UP is the most important state. The other hurdles are there in Assam, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. We already have fronts in West Bengal and Kerala. In Maharashtra, we have already formed a front which includes the united Republican Party of India (RPI), the left parties, the JD and the SP.
It is only after all these fronts emerge in various states, that we will be able to project the National Front and the Left parties combine nationally. Because it is only when a clear picture of the Third Front emerges that people will begin to respond. The question (of participation or not) will only arise when there is a cohesive, credible front in place.
People are talking of evolving a common programme, but the question is: with whom? It is no point working out a programme which the constituents of the front may or may not implement. So let everyone first come into the fold. By March 3, the CPM will finalize its own manifesto. Eventually, once we know who all are part of the front, we will work out a common appeal.
(Source: The Times of India, 2 March 1996)
UP: SJ-JD Alliance
The political scenario of Uttar Pradesh has crystallized following finalization of poll alliance between Janata Dal and Samajvadi Party and with the Bahujan Samaj Party ruling out seat sharing with Congress and Bharatiya Janata Party while keeping the doors open for post poll alliance with the parties.
In the emerging scenario, the state is heading for a multi-concerned or quadrangular contest between Congress, BJP, BSP, JD-SP and Congress (Indira) However on majority of the seats, particularly in eastern and central Uttar Pradesh, the fight for the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections is likely to narrow down between BJP and JD-SP.
The alliance between SP-JD has resolved the minorities dilemma, who despite their distrust for the BSP after it formed its government in the State with the BJP support, had started looking towards it as yet another force which could take on the BJP in some pockets of the State, especially in western U.P.
However, Kanshi Ram's statement in Delhi in which he did not rule out the possibility of forming the Government at the Centre with the support of Congress and BJP has only confirmed their suspicion about his credentials.
Kanshi Ram's statement has, in fact, come at a crucial stage when Muslims, especially political leaders among them were getting influenced by their Statewide Dalit Muslim ekta rally. His statement would undoubtedly benefit JD-SP as division of the minority vote would get averted to a larger extent.
The BJP is apparently happy with the political developments as they have succeeded in their game plan of creating a wedge between Mulayam Singh Yadav and Kanshi Ram, along with which the formidable combination of Dalit Muslims, backwards too stands fragmented. However, Mulayam Singh Yadav is confident that he would be able to win over Dalit support with the help of Raj Bahadur faction of the BSP.
Infact the political situation of the state at the time of 1989 Lok Sabha elections was not much different from the one prevailing today. The only acute difference being that while Janata Dal and BJP had do tacit understandingly on the slogan of anti-Congressism, today they are fiercely pitted against each other.
During the past few years while JD lost a major chunk of its votes in western UP. Mulayam has gained strength by consolidating minority and OBC votes. Congress stands divided. BJP appears on a sticky wicket while BSP despite its improved strength seems to more on a damaging spree than on a winning one.
(Source: The Hindustan Times, 28 March, 1996)
Report on Muslim Votes in W. Bengal Udayan Namboodiri in the Indian Express,
4 March, 1996
West Bengal's electoral landscape for 1996 is expected to witness, for the first time in many years, a distinct ideological shift. The political contenders have begun to treat the State's seven million Muslims as a distinct voting block. This unique development, owes its origin to the national political scene.
The post-Babari era has driven the Muslims away from the Congress because the community felt betrayed, So the party, in its attempt to rebuild bridges is desperately trying to portray its rivals, which in West Bengal happens to be the Communists, as the bigger enemy," says Amanullah of the Urdu daily, Afsal.
But certain developments in the State have also contributed to a communally charged political landscape: the question of Bangladeshi infiltration, corruption in the State Wakf Board, the way in which the Left Front government handled the flare-up in the aftermath of the Habari Masjid demolition in December 1992, the issue of wow slaughter and the state polity's answer to the Maharashtra Government's persecution of Bengali speaking Muslims. Eighteen years of Marxist rule Hemed to have by and large insulated West Bengal from communalism. This has been politically significant for a State which had undergone a traumatic partition and where the question of refugees still looms large on local politics. Congress leader, Ms. Mamata Banerjee says Economically, the Muslims here have fared the worst because the Left Front did not lay down reservations for them. They have fattened the Muslim elite of the cities leaving the rural and urban poor to fend for themselves."
She points to the multi-crore scam in the State's Wakf Board which she claims to have exposed. Since Muslims make up 25% of the electorate, the Congress hopes to make an impression by focussing on the economic disadvantages faced by the community.
Mr. Zainal Abedin, Congress(1) leader in the State Assembly, says: "The Left Front is as communal as the HP and we will expose them in this election."
The return of Mr. S.S. Ray to state politics has also Exaggerated the communal flavour in the Congress campaign. He has reportedly expressed a desire to contest from a "Muslim scat" this time. According to his allies in the party, he would be carrying out the P.M.'s wish as part of the party high command's overall plan to woo back the Muslim vote. The Left parties are not overtly worried about the pro-Muslim campaign though its rival interpret a communal bias in the fact that most of the candidates in Murshidabad, Malda, Nadia and South 24 Parganas districts are Muslims.
A Report on M.P. 2% Swing Makes Difference between BJP and Congress
The Congress and the BJP have been sharing almost equally up to 90 per cent of votes cast in Madhya Pradesh since 1980. Before that Jan Sangh and Janata Party had done the same. In 1991 elections, the two parties had split 87 per cent votes almost vertically.
The BJP had secured 41.88 per cent votes to Congress" 45.34. But while BJP managed only 12 seats, the Congress rode back home with 27. The third force in the shape of Janata Dal or BSP still means nothing in State politics.
This time, however, the situation has become interesting since Arjun Singh, is likely to divide Congress votes. In 1989, V.C. Shukla had weaned away a sizable chunk for Janata Dal. The same thing happened, in 1977 when the Congress had split.
The difference of votes between the two main parties is so little that even a two per cent swing in favor of one may catapult, it to victory. This is where Arjun Singh factor becomes important. If his alliance with BSP comes through, it will be a close contes, on at least five seats in North MP -Satna, Rewa, Morera, Bhind and Sidhi.
If the two partes jointly cause a two per cent negative swing in favor of BJP then the latter will not have to do much apart from putting up a candidate. Observers here believe that Singh is likely to put up strong candidates in these places even if it happens to benefit the BJP.
This tendency can be particularly damaging for the Congress in at least six more constituencies-Sagar Raipur, Kaaker, Bastar, Jabalpur and Khandwa. In these constituencies, the BJP candidates had lost by less than 20,000 votes.
In 1991, BJP too had won four of the 12 seats with a margin of less than 20,000 votes. The four seats were Hoshangabad, Khargone, Mandsuar and Damoh.
[Secular voters should, therefore, support the strongest winnable candidate against the BJP, whatever his party label - Editor]
(Source: The Indian Express, 29 March, 1996)
Thoughts of Jawahar Lal Nehru
· India will be land, as in the past, of many faiths, equally honored and respected, but of one national outlook, not a narrow nationalism living in its own shell, but rather the tolerant, creative nationalism which, believing in itself and the genius of its people, takes full part in the establishment of an international order.
· The future of India and Pakistan lies in their friendship and cooperation for the benefit of both.
