NATIONAL POLITICS
Vidya Subrahmaniam
On the Coming General Elections, 1996
No one can say for certain what will click with the electorate, much less predict who will combine with whom to defeat whom. Worse, not one political party can boast of a better record in office than its rivals, not one can speak with conviction of its programmes, policies or principles and not one is even remotely confident of crossing the half-way mark.
This singularly dismal outlook explains the massive manhunt for allies. It explains too the poverty of ideas on the slogan front. The three main political formations, the Congress, the National Front-Left Front combine and the Bharatiya Janata Party are equally placed and who races to the top will depend on who wins the crucial allies.
On to strategy and slogans. Stability would appear to be the most obvious Congress platform. And yet he is unsure of the salability of "stability". The tragedy of the Congress is that neither Mr. Rao's amazing durability nor his daring economic initiatives have quite neutralized the perception that his government is permanently in hibernation; that no calamity will move it not the Ayodhya mishap, not the Bombay blast, not the electoral setbacks, not the scams and scandals, not even the security scares. This drawback could upset calculations even on a good day, it could be fatal in this age of niche- marketing, when caste and religion-specific parties have neatly carved up the party's once-assured upper caste- Muslim-Dalit base.
The NF-LF's potentially winning slogan "equity and quality in all spheres" cannot make even the minimal impact as matters stand. The Front bristles with leaders, each of whom is an autonomous decision-making ity The BJP's winning card in 1991 was its splendid isolation, while the uniquely put together Hindutva campaign worked at the emotional level to unite the segmented Hindu castes, the party's ostensible concern fr clean politics won the grudging admiration of even those not sold on Hindutva. It was, indeed, the party with difference. But no longer. And as is evident from the results of the 1993 assembly elections the BJP lost all xi) But one seat from Faizabad district the Ayodhya card has been played to the hilt: (BJP) is, however, convinced that in time the elections will crystallize into a referendum on Indian nationalism.
Assuming the absence of a wave, the electoral arithmetic points to a hung House. As of now the Congress seems destined to draw a blank in Bihar and UP, its pursuit of the BSP notwithstanding. Having emerged from the ruins of the Congress, the BSP is unlikely to want a return to the past. In M.P., Haryana, Orissa, Punjab and Karnataka, it can hope to win a maximum of 50% of the seats, even less should its opponents decide on seat adjustments. In Maharashtra, much will depend on how much flexibility the high, command allows Mr. Sharad Pawar. The prognosis is uneven in Rajasthan and HP but certainly promising in AP, Gujarat, Tamil Nadu and the North-East. In any event the party would be lucky to finish with a tally of 180.
Both the NF-LF and the BJP are critically dependent on UP to deliver them the status of the largest single party. Janata Dal ideologue Surendra Mohan asserts that even without UP, the former can manage about 157 seats (60 to the JD from Orissa, Karnataka and Bihar, seven to the AGP, 30 to NTR and 60 in all to the LF). There is an element of exaggeration in this, but should the JD succeed in forming a united front with the SP and the BSP, the situation will alter dramatically; the troika will sweep UP, helping the NF-LF to cross the 200 mark.
It is a make-or-break situation for the BJP too. The maximum that the party strategists can account for, UP included is 202 (15 in Bihar, 20 in Gujarat, 14 in Karnataka, 28 in MP, 18 in Rajasthan and 70 in UP). But as can be seen, even this estimate is wide of the mark. The party has suffered an erosion in base both in Bihar and Karnataka since the 1991 elections, its ranks are hopelessly split in Gujarat and it is inconceivable that UP should deliver a bounty of 70. Take away UP and the party stays where it is. Even a "save the nation" wave can only marginally alter the scene, as the entire south, barring Karnataka, is out of bounds for the party.
Each formation will no doubt try to finish at the top of the heap. But it must be equally prepared for the runners-up title.
(Source: The Times of India, 3 January, 1996)
