MUSLIM POLITICS

UNI Analysis on Minorities Votes

Overview

Muslim voters in the 78-odd constituencies where the community has its sizeable presence seem to have by and large voted against the congress in the recent Lok Sabha elections.

The Muslim voters supported variety of candidates in BJP strongholds. A number of candidates were in neck- and-neck fight with the BJP candidates in the 50 constituencies studied.

But wherever there was a strong alternative candidate for congress they simply voted the Congress out of the contest. The Congress had to face hefty negative swings in those states, where there was some alternative present.

The voting pattern of the minorities have adversely affected the Congress party's performance in Kerala, West Bengal and Tamil Nadu.

In the process of defeating the BJP candidates, the Muslims voted for Congress in 12 of the 50 Muslim dominated constituencies of Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Karnataka, Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh.

Out of the 28 Parliamentary constituencies where the minority voters have a dominating presence in the electorate of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Lakshadweep, the Congress could manage to win only five seats.

 EAST INDIA

In East Zone comprising Bihar, Orissa and West Bengal, the Left parties and the JD were the front runner in the parliamentary constituencies where the Muslim presence is above 20 per cent. The Left Front polled 37.5 per cent votes in such constituencies while the Congress does not seem to have lost ground in these constituencies where the Muslim voters account for about one fifth of the electorate. The party was left behind the front only by a margin of over two per cent.

In the last decade the Congress faced the negative swing of 6.20 per cent votes in high Muslim concentration Lok Sabha constituencies of East Zone, while the BJP gained by a hefty over eleven per cent votes.

Bihar

However, specifically in Bihar, the BJP polled 31 per cent votes in constituencies where the Muslim voters account for 20 per cent or more, improving from 21 per cent votes it polled in 1991 election. Though the JD remained front runner with 35.9 per cent vote-share in these Muslim constituencies, its votes-share declined from 43 per cent in 1991 polls.

In Bihar, the minorities voted for the JD and the Congress had to face a hefty negative swing of more than ten per cent votes. The BJP enjoyed a positive swing, but could poll only 31 per cent of popular votes. The Congress was a distant third with 16 per cent votes only. But the tactical voting phenomenon was clear in the Katihar constituency where JD candidate and the former union home minister Mufti Mohd. Sayeed was not in the main fray against the BJP candidate; the minority voters did not vote for him but they voted for stronger Congress candidate Tariq Anwar. Mr. Anwar won with a comfortable margin.

In West Bengal's high Muslim concentration Lok Sabha constituencies, the Left parties polled 47.9 per cent votes, showing about one per cent increase in there support base in these areas. The Congress was runner up with 40.7 per cent votes this year. While the BJP was placed the distant third in these constituencies of east zone. The Congress vote-share improved by 5.7 per cent votes in these areas. It was a neck-and-neck fight in medium concentration constituencies where the Congress polled 44.2 per cent votes against the 44.4 per cent of the Left Front. In the last decade the Congress suffered an erosion of over seven per cent votes in the high Muslim concentration areas of West Bengal, while the BJP registered a positive swing of 11.35 per cent votes. The Left Front also lost one per cent of its votes in these specific constituencies.

NORTH INDIA

In the high Muslim constituencies of Northern India, the BJP remained the front runner with 36.4 per cent votes this year. Where Muslim form more than 20 per cent of the electorate. In 1992 elections, the JD and Congress had been runner up and second runner up respectively with 21 and 19 per cent votes.

This year the BSP has emerged as the third major political entity in these Muslim areas with about 17 per cent vote-share, while SP was the second with 19.5 per cent votes in high minority concentration constituencies of northern India.

The UNI/C voter computer analysis says that in the last decade the Congress suffered an erosion of over eleven per cent votes in the high Muslim concentration Lok Sabha constituencies of Northern India, while the BJP gained by a staggering over 29 per cent votes.

In Uttar Pradesh, the BJP was front runner in high Muslim concentration Lok Sabha seats. It polled 36.1 per cent votes this year showing the two per cent decrees in its support-base. In 1991, the JD was runner up with 23 per cent votes in these constituencies, while the SP of Mulayam Singh under an electoral understanding with JD emerged as the runner in these constituencies with 21 percent votes. The BSP emerged the second runner up with 17.6 per cent votes this year, while Congress had stood third in 1991 polls with 18 per cent votes.

In Uttar Pradesh, there were many alternatives to the Congress. So, the Congress was the sole loser while everyone else gained from it. The Congress had to face a hefty negative swing of more than nine per cent. The 18 per cent support base of JD in such areas was shifted towards it's ally- the Samajwadi Party which enjoyed a positive swing of more than 21 per cent votes. Wherever the SP was not in a positive to give a proper fight to the BJP, the Bahujan Samaj Party became the main gainer. The BSP enjoyed a positive swing of about 12 per cent votes in these constituencies.

The Samajwadi Party of Mulayam Singh Yadav received the maximum support of the minority voters. The party was in straight fight with the BJP in as many as 21 parliamentary constituencies where the Muslim voters are deciding factor. The SP won eight seats, but lost 13 to the BJP due to acute communal polarization among voters. The BJP was the sole gainer in these constituencies as the party won 26 of the 50 seats.

A total of nine parties were in main contest with the BJP. The voting pattern shows that the minorities have voted the best possible candidate who could defeat the BJP, irrespective of whichever party he belonged to.

In Tamil Nadu, the Congress was completely wiped out. While in Kerala the Left Front emerged as the alternative of the Congress and it polled 32 per cent votes, the Congress had to face a negative swing of five per cent votes together with its ally- the Muslim League.

We Must Silence Shahabuddin - BJP

The Bharatiya Janata Party's one-point programme in this backward Lok Sabha constituency where Muslims account for 60 per cent of the electorate, is to defeat high profile sitting MP, Syed Shahabuddin.

But the Muslims seem determined to avert a split in their votes... It is understood that they will decide upon a "consensus" candidate from among the non- BJP contestants a few days before the polls.

The BJP is, however, unfazed. Explains Gurcharan Singh, District BJP President, "Muslim votes are bound to be scattered, however, hard community leaders try to consolidate.

The BJP is indeed in an upbeat mood. Its workers are "Turing" voters with the promise of building the Ram temple at Ayodhya "After Shahabuddin is silenced"

(Source: The Times of India; 2 May, 1996)

Analysis by State

Muslim M.P.s

A.P: 2,                                    Assam: 1,                               Bihar: 4,

Kerala: 2,                               Karnataka: 1,                        Maharashtra: 1,

U.P: 5                                     W.Bengal: 5,

Lakshadweep: 1,                   Pondicherry: 1