NATIONAL POLITICS

Ahtesham Qureshy on the Muslim Voters Mood

Voting for Candidates, Not Parties, to Safeguard Their Future

The coming Lok Sabha elections are of particular importance for Muslims, who will determine the fortunes of political parties and candidates in a large number of constituencies.

The newly sharpened focus on  corruption among top political leaders... would no doubt influence the mind of the average Muslim voter too. But, for him, the uppermost consideration is the future of the community, its economic prosperity, and the preservation of its social, cultural and religious identity. Concern for physical security, or lack of security, has now become a secondary factor. This is the change in the Muslim psyche brought about after the demolition of the Babari Masjid in December, 1992.

For one, there is no change in the anti-Congress mood of the Muslims in the northern, southern and western states. In fact, the alienation has only widened. it is not just the demolition of the Babari Masjid. The community has overcome the shock. The real question is the overall credibility of the Congress as a party which has been in power for about 47 years, and the common Muslim view is that the party has betrayed the confidence and support it had enjoyed.

For the post-partition Muslims - which is more than 50 per cent of the population - the highest attraction is for social justice and trangible benefits which promise to flow from reservation of opportunities for the backward classes. The consideration is economic upliftment of the economically and educationally backward community. The inspiration obviously came from the Mandal Commission and its recommendations for the reservation of jobs in public service and of seats in educational institutions.

It is largely because of the frustration with the Congress and new attraction for the concept of reservation that the Muslims feel a gravitational pull towards the "third force", comprising the Janata Dal, Samajwadi Party of Mulayam Singh, the CPI and CPI- M. The support will of course vary from region to region or state to state. In Assam, for example... the choice might be difficult. There the ethnic strife and the contentious issue of "migrants" have been vital for the minority community.

There is an emerging group of people who do not want bulk support for any one political party or combination or alliance. They advocate "picking-and- irrespective of the political party to which he or she might belong. This new core group of politically conscious people, who want to shun publicity and propaganda, would quietly visit carefully selected parliamentary constituencies  and make an assessment of the various candidates in the poll arena. This group will then commend to the voters a candidate who in its view would serve the community and its cause better in Parliament. The object is to experiment with individuals, and not political parties. it is also intended to boost the prospects of the "winning horses" to pave the way for a large presence of Muslim members in the new Lok Sabha.

Another interesting feature of the 1996 parliamentary elections is that the Muslim community does not suffer from the complex of having no leadership. New leaders have been thrown up by local or state situations during the recent panchayat and municipal elections in the country. However, both P.V. Narasimha Rao and V.P. Singh have been contacting Muslim intellectuals and religious scholars like Maulana Abul Hasan Ali Nadvi. But Ali Mian has consistently avoided speaking on political matters. Abdullah Bukhari of Delhi has lost his appeal in whatever limited way it was exploited at the 1991 polls.

In terms of pure electoral strategy, leaders of the community are quite clear that the split of Muslim vote should be avoided at all costs. This is what was done at the recent Panchayat polls in UP. The experiment done in Maharashtra may not be repeated in view of the anti- Muslim steps taken by the Manohar Joshi government during the one year of power. Small parties like the Muslim League would have no relevance at the polls, except in Kerala. The Congress on its part might try to exploit organizations of Imams in certain states..The BSP in UP is a residuary, so far as the Muslim support is concerned.

 (Source: The Hindustan Times, 21 March, 1996)

Kuldip Nayar

On BJP and Congress Poll Prospects

There is no revival of congress in the country. Nor is there any vibration, much less a wave, in favour of the Bharatiya Janata Party. All that has happened is that the sharpness of dissensions in Congress has lessened and the dust raised by the revolt in the BJP in Gujarat has settled down. But neither of the two parties looks like winning even one-third of the 544 Lok Sabha seats.

With Congress and the BJP out of reckoning - the BJP will get more seats than Congress - a combination of all-India and regional political parties look like assuming choosing" of a candidate, irrespective of the political power at the Centre. Congress may try to join that government. But I see no likelihood of the BJP coming group of politically conscious people, who want to shun to power, not even indirectly by making any other party publicity and propaganda, would quietly visit carefully a stalking horse.

 (Source: The Nation and the World)