NATIONAL POLITICS

Asghar Ali Engineer on Muslim Vote

Now that the general elections are slated to be held in April it has become quite urgent for various parties to court Muslims. It is generally thought, and rightly so, that the Muslim vote can make a vital difference. All secular parties, and even parties like the BJP try to woo the Muslims. Generally the BJP fails to make it and hence comes out with dubious theories like 'appeasement of Muslims' by the secular parties. But it also wants the Muslims to vote for it. However, there are serious limits to which it can go to woo Muslim voters.

First, the BJP is tied to the RSS which is a proponent of Hindu Rashtra. It cannot break this connection. This completely puts off the Muslim voters. Second, the BJP has created a hard core believing firmly in the Hindutva philosophy. Whenever it relaxes on its commitment to the Hindutva ideology, this hard core revolts and threatens the leadership.

The fact that the BJP tries to woo Muslim voters is proved by its recent attempts to attract Muslims through slogans like "Talim, Tijarat and Tarbiyat" (education, commerce and training). It told the Muslims that the Congress only tried to appease them without doing anything ad that it would try to provide them the opportunities for education, commerce and training in various fields. The BJP came out with this slogan immediately after the Assembly elections in Maharashtra in early 1995 in which the Shiv Sena-BJP alliance captured power and a small section of the Muslims about five per cent voted for the alliance. This raised the BJP's hope of attracting a greater percentage of the Muslim vote. It is quite true that the Congress woos the Muslims without doing much for them in concrete terms. It does try to use the Muslims as its vote bank though it does not always succeed in it. The Congress is not sincerely committed to the welfare of Muslims. It announces some programmes on the election eve and once the elections are over, everything is forgotten. This is very clearly proved by the lackluster manner in which the 15-point programme has been implemented.

Of course, the Congress tries to woo the Muslims in other ways too. The issue of Imams' salary is another instance. First the Government announced that it will pay the Imams. When it faced criticism it quietly announced that it was for the wakf boards to pay the Imams. Another issue is reservation. The Union Welfare Minister, Mr. Sitaram Kesri, was fielded to say that the Muslims also deserved reservation. He said this at a conference convened by Syed Shahabuddin and others in Delhi on the reservation issue and this was when the elections were near. The Muslim masses very well understand such games.

In the post-Babari Masjid demolition period there has been a great change in the attitude of Muslims. They no longer respond emotionally to various issues as they did before December 6, 1992. Emotional appeals are now ignored.

It is heartening that the Muslims in general have realized that their future lies in making sincere efforts to improve their lot through education and economic progress. Many organizations have sprung up in the last couple of years to promote education and economic well being. Some Muslim intellectuals are also trying to promote social reforms. Though they may not succeed right away, they will certainly succeed in creating an awareness and even a sense of urgency.

Today it is much more difficult to sway the Muslims by throwing some emotional bait before them. Thus it is important to see which way the Muslim vote will go. One thing is however, certain. Muslims continue to be deeply alienated from the Congress in general. It is mostly on account of the soft attitude of the Narasimha Rao Government has towards the Hindutva forces on the one- hand, and, its neglect of concrete Muslim problems, on the other. The Congress will find it very difficult, though not impossible, to induce the Muslims to vote for it. It will be very difficult at least in the northern States to attract Muslim vote.

It is utterly simplistic to say that the Muslims have been a vote-bank for any party whether it "appeases" them or not. Muslim masses have voted very intelligently right from the first general elections in 1952. It is also not true that there is any all India pattern in Muslim voting. It can and does change from region to region. In the south too there is variation in Muslim voting from State to State. But whenever there is a general trend or wave in the country in favor of some party or the other the Muslims also vote accordingly, The Muslims prefer whichever party the people of India prefer.

It is too early to say how the Muslims would vote in the coming Lok Sabha elections. Much will depend on unity in the National Front-Left Front. If there is viable unity, the Muslims might opt for it. it is my opinion that in the post-Babari Masjid demolition period, the Hindu masses are also looking for a viable alternative to both the Congress and the BJP. But if there is no unity in the NF-LF, the Muslims will vote differently in different States. They may vote for Mr. Mulayam Singh's party in UP, for the Janata Dal in Bihar and Karnataka, for the Congress in MP, Rajasthan, Maharashtra and Gujarat, for the CPI(M) in West Bengal, for the Muslim League and the CPI(M)-led front in Kerala, for the Telugu Desam in Andhra Pradesh, for the AIADMK in Tamil Nadu and the Asom Gana Parishad in Assam. There may not be any all India pattern at all. However, there is likely to be variations according to the credibility of the candidates too. Gone are the days when people voted as per directives. They are now acutely aware of the political situation and vote quite intelligently according to their own perceptions.

(Source: The Hindu, 23 January, 1996)