NATIONAL POLITICS

Imtiaz Ahmed on Muslim Vote

For nearly four decades, the belief has persisted that Muslims vote en bloc in elections.

There is evidence that in the first three elections, the Muslim vote indeed tended to be monolithic. However, by 1967, Muslim consolidation in favor of the Congress began to break down. Under the umbrella of an elite Muslim formation the Muslim Majlis-e-Mushawarat the Muslim vote split both regionally and among a broad spectrum of political parties left of the centre. Since then, the Muslim vote tended to behave very much life the national vote. It split among a number of different political parties when the national vote was similarly fragmented. It consolidated in favor of a single national party or alliance of parties when the national vote was similarly consolidated. Such a consolidation was most prominent during the 1971, 1977 and 1984 general elections.

After the demolition of the Babari Masjid, the Muslim political opinion in the country was greatly alienated from the Congress for the manner in which the Central Government helplessly watched the demolition. Some even accused Prime Minister Narasimha Rao of complicity with the BJP.

Leaders of Muslim opinion realized that anti- Congressism favored the BJP, whom Muslims see as their primary enemy. Consequently, long before the 1996 Lok Sabha elections were declared, a section of them started to bring Muslims on to a communal platform. Issues of job reservation for Muslims were raised so that Muslim political support could be consolidated under a common umbrella. Unfortunately, neither job reservation nor the projected threat to Muslim identity in the face of the BJP-inspired campaign for a uniform civil code elicited a unified response. On the contrary, on each of the issues Muslim response varied and remained fragmented.

Muslims have been greatly affected by the processes of social change and economic development which have been underway during the past three decades. One consequence of this social transformation has been an inversion of the traditional social structure.

On the one hand, the traditional Muslim elite has lost out in both position and power; on the other, the lower groups have done well economically and socially and are no longer willing to submit to the domination of the elite Muslims. One strategy adopted by the elite to dominate the lower Muslim groups has been to prop up communal issues. It worked initially, but gradually these lower groups have begun to see through this game.

Transformations within the Muslim community

have two implications in the context of the forthcoming elections. First, the Muslim vote is not likely to be monolithic in favor of any single political party or alliance of parties. Nor is it likely to be entirely anti- Congress. Wherever a viable third forces does not exist, the Muslim vote will go in favor of the Congress no matter what might be their sensibility about the Congress' role in the demolition of the Babari Masjid.

Second, Muslim vote will split along caste-class lines with the elite Muslims reverting substantially to the Congress and upwardly mobile backward Muslim groups voting in tandem with similar groups for the political parties raising the slogan of social justice. Therefore, this election may well explode the myth of a monolithic Muslim vote unless communal trends again reinforce consolidation along community lines.

(Source: The India Today, 30 April, 1996)

BJP: Views of A.B. Vajpayee

I publicly expressed my anguish after the demolition of the Babari Masjid. The demolition at Ayodhya was never a part of either the BJP or the RSS plan of action. There were other BJP leaders, including Advani, who expressed distress.

We have not diluted our stand on Hindutva. In this election, issues such as corruption, national security and criminalization of politics have come to the fore.

We will try to reach the minorities and explain to them the real meaning of this term (Hindutva).

We have always been dubbed anti-Muslim. The so-called secular parties have been raising the BJP bogey to keep their Muslim vote bank intact. But some sections of the minorities understand us better. Sikhs have been voting for us in large numbers after being exposed to the communal face of Congress during the 1984 riots. In the last assembly elections, in Gujarat and Maharashtra, a section of the Muslims voted for us.

When the Maharashtra Government wound up the judicial commission probing the Bombay communal riots, I was not happy and said so publicly. Surprisingly, many Muslims wanted the commission would.

Asghar Ali Engineer on Muslim Voters

It is very interesting to note that in the post-Babari Masjid demolition period there has been a great change in the attitude of Muslims. They have considerably sobered down and no longer respond emotionally to various issues as they did before December 6, 1992. They have very well understood that the Muslim leaders raise emotional issues only to exploit them for their political games. They have understood that religious issues are played up deliberately by the leadership and that for such opportunist games and adventurism it is the poor Muslims who pay dearly, not the leaders.

All such emotional appeals are now coolly ignored by the Muslims. Even the appeal for reconstruction of the Babari Masjid does not find much response as it is likely to lead to another disaster. The Muslim leaders also hardly talk about it. They have sensed the Muslim mood. The Shahi Imam and the leaders of his ilk have fallen by the roadside. There is no one even to regret their sorry plight.

It is also heartening that the Muslims in general have realized that their future lies in making sincere efforts to better their plight through educational and economic progress. Many organizations have sprung up in the last couple of years to promote education and economic well- being. Some Muslim intellectuals are also trying to promote social reform, including reform in Muslim personal law.

Thus, today it is much more difficult to sway Muslims by throwing some emotional bait before them as the political parties and Muslim leaders used to do earlier. it is, therefore, an important question today which way the Muslim vote will go. One thing is, however, certain. Muslims continue to be deeply alienated from the Congress in general. The Congress will find it very difficult, though not impossible, to induce Muslims to vote for it at the all-India level.

It is an utterly simplistic proposition that the Muslims have been a vote-bank for any party whether it 'appeases' them or not. Muslim masses have voted very intelligently right from the first general elections in 1952.

There is another myth which also needs to be exploded. It is maintained by some that the Muslims vote according to the Farman or fatwa. The Muslims actually vote according to their own perception of the situation and context.

 Much will depend on the unity of the National Front-Left Front combine. If there is a viable unity among them the Muslims might opt for it. But if there is no such unity in the NF-LF. Muslims will vote differently in different States. They may not be any all-India pattern at all. However, what we have stated here refers only to the general pattern. There is likely to be variations according to the credibility of candidates too.

(Source: The Mainstream, 16 March, 1996)

Wahid Uddin Khan On Prospects for a Muslim Prime Minister

Today the country is beset by serious problems to solve which new blood is required. And this new blood. according to the predictions of Swami Vivekananda, can be found among the Muslims. On June 19, 1898, he wrote:

I see in my mind's eye the future perfect India rising out of this chaos and strife, glorious and invincible, with Vedanta brain and Islam body.

To put it quite plainly, this would mean having at Hindu President and a Muslim Prime Minister for our great democratic system. Today the formation of such a government has become an inescapable necessity. The Swami's dictum of one hundred years ago would appear to be an ideal proposal in terms of present circumstances. It is not just playing with ideas; it is rather making a cool assessment of the country's present condition. More than 80 per cent of the problems faced by our country today relate directly or indirectly to Muslims. Would not an able and patriotic Muslim Prime Minister deal with them. with greater insight and efficiency?

Let us look at what India's most serious problems are, given its central position in a huge chain of Muslim countries stretching to its east and west. The most difficult problem to be solved is that of Kashmir. Then there is the normalization of relations with the West Asian countries, with whom. innumerable matters of national interest are at issue. Other problems include securing the support of the issue. Other problems include securing the support of the Muslim members in the United Nations; the normalization of relations with Pakistan, which for us is of prime importance: the establishment of a corridor through Bangladesh to joint northern India with the rest of the country by road or rail. and the formation of a federation of India, Pakistan and Bangladesh as a permanent political solution to the problems of the subcontinent, besides the internal normalization of Hindu-Muslim relations, and so on

Serious problems like these have become obstacles in the path of our progress. Our journey as a nation has reached a dead end. In such circumstances, an able Muslim Prime Minister may effectively lead the caravan of national progress out of its present state of impasse.

Our Muslim leaders indulge in wishful thinking. (do not) make an in-depth study of circumstances and then make plans of proven feasibility.

It would be ridiculous to suggest, of course, that a few articles published in the newspapers should suffice for a Muslim to be offered the post of Prime Minister.

(Source: The Times of India. 7 December, 19)