The resignation of the Bihar CM, Laloo Prasad Yadav, seemed to have set up another round of confrontation between the Rashtriya Janata Dal and the Left-Democratic Opposition, providing indications also that the post-scam emergent political equations could only crystallise further.

The Left-Democratic 15-party combine, the BJP-Samata combine and the RJD-JMM tied up with the Congress, seem to be the three polarised political axes preparing for the future electoral battles in Bihar. While the splits between allies were predicted, the forced nature of the splits suggests that the socio-political configuration achieved post-1990, has been lost sight of and the electorate is set to face a trauma in choosing its leaders from among a competing set of philosophies.

At present the strength of the Left-Democratic combination in the Bihar Assembly does not exceed 50 members including the SP, the CPI-ML, the RSP and the MCC. Thus it is clear that while this formation could influence to create a scenario for three-way split in votes in any future electoral battle, it cannot hope to upset the RJD applicant or challenge the 'communal' BJP-Samata combine. Thus, the Left has redoubled its efforts to rope in the JD which presently has 35 members and lure the democratic Samata break out of its alliance with the BJP.

With Samata as the spearhead and the JD as its vanguard, the Left-Democratic combine hopes to ride into power and tackle the twin challenge of 'corruption' and 'communalism' squarely.

The tragedy in the present fluid political situation forcing the polarisations is that, the social base of Bihar would be further divided. Would the Dalits who stayed with the Congress before discarding it for the JD, stay with the RJD if a JD formation headed by a Dalit, Ram Vilas Paswan, beckons them. How strong hysteria can Sharad Yadav whip up among the Yadavs along with the SP-led by Rajesh Ranjan alias Pappu Yadav? Will the Left-Democratic combine, secular as such, be able to draw the minorities to its fold?

The entire scenario could change if RJD members were to desert party and join the JD. The JD, if it could draw up to 100 members, could form the Government with Left-Democratic support, thus postponing early elections. In that scenario, the RJD rump could be lost in the dust of history. For that matter can a politically irrelevant rump promise any security, even to a much weaker Congress and the JMM? (Source: The Hindu, 27 July, 1997)