In the 12th Lok Sabha attempts at ministry- formation by the regional and other non-Congress parties will encounter turbulence because of the electoral antagonism between the TDP, DMK, AGP and CPM with the Congress. Unless the Congress is willing to commit hara-kiri in Kerala, Bengal, Assam, Tamil Nadu and AP, a coalition at the Centre may still elude them.

Of course, it can be pointed out that the Congress is virtually defunct in Tamil Nadu, and is likely to get substantially weakened in Bengal after the Mamata episode. However, despite this, that party is a natural foe of the TDP and the AGP, while for the DMK it can at best be a tactical - rather than a natural - ally.

After the polls, both the AGP as well as the TDP may join hands with the BJP, if the Lok Sabha arithmetic is such that otherwise they will get excluded from a share in national power.

Should the BJP persevere in its minority-friendly approach, the regional parties are likely to accept it as a much more desirable ally than Congress party ... Indeed, while V.P. Singh tried a repeat of the 1989 quarantine strategy, this time replacing the Congress with the BJP in the isolation ward, events have shown that this time the attempt has failed. Apart from the AIADMK, significant chunks of both the Congress and the Janata Dal have broken away to ally with it ... Only "minority factor" still favours the Congress over the BJP. However, placing Kashi and Mathura on the back-burner and using dialogue rather than confrontation to resolve the Babari dispute may neutralise this as well.

The BJP probably needs 200 seats on its own to become the nucleus of a viable combination. Should the moderate "Vajpayee" strand in its approach continue into the next year, then this "viability quotient" (which essentially reflects its acceptability as an ally) may move to 180 - a figure well within reach.

Even in the 1998 poll, should the BSP and the SP fight separately in UP, and the Bihar electorate reject the ... view that Laloo is blameless in the fodder scam, the BJP may close in on this figure ... Thus, in the "alliance" phase of the 1998 battle, the BJP is still the front-runner. However, it is not end-December but end-January that will be decisive in fashioning the outcome of an election gifted to the country by the Sonia-Sitaram Congress. (Source: The Times of India, 25 December, 1997)