NATIONAL POLITICS

Shaji Joseph on the Future of the JD under Laloo Yadav

The Janata Dal supremo Laloo Yadav who had emphatically maintained that he would be 'king maker made a 'return to his native kingdom' as neither 'the king nor the king-maker'. And at home what awaits Mr. Yadav is a party where dissension has begun to raise its ugly head demanding a change of leadership in the party at the state level.

The electoral debacle that the Janata Dal suffered in the recently concluded elections in the State seems to have robbed Mr. Yadav of his tag of invincibility and his much-publicized charisma, posing a potent threat to his colossal position for the first time-during his six years tenure as the Chief Minister of the state. Already, the dissidents in the party have begun to turn their guns towards Mr. Laloo Prasad squarely blaming him for the party's poor show at the hustings in its strong-hold.

A large number of state JD leaders have begun to state, overtly or covertly, that Laloo Prasad should step down as he has lost the 'magic wand' to ensure the victory of the party in the future elections. According to these leaders "the poll results have snatched the shine and color that was the hallmark of Yadav's political personality."

A senior JD MLA and former speaker of the sate assembly, Mr. Ghulam Sarwar has already said that Yadav who had pocketed all the credit for the splendid performance of the party in 1995 assembly elections should also own the responsibility for its drubbing in the 1996 Lok Sabha elections. According to him the JD. supremo did not even consult the senior leaders of the state JD in deciding the party candidates for the just concluded elections, Instead Yadav did everything on his own 'whims and fancies'. There are other senior leaders in the party like the state Health Minister Dr. Mahabir Prasad who holds the Chief Minister responsible for the Party's dismal performance in the state while a few leaders who are not ready to be quoted say "the Chief Minister had been behaving like an 'autocrat' and it was his 'arrogance' that caused the electoral setback". A senior functionary of the JD in the state opined that Mr. Yadav picked up candidates not on the basis of their winning capacity but on their 'personal loyalty to him.

That Yadav and his party have lost their grip over their vote bank is proved by the party's defeat in the Chapra Lok Sabha seat and the Danapur assembly seat both of which have the distinction of having elected Laloo Prasad himself in 1989 and 1995 respectively... The woes of the JD do not seem to stop here as even the percentage of vote polled by it went to 23 as against the " 40% it had garnered in 1989 and 1991. A major split in the party's backward vote bank in the wake of the powerful Kurmis and Koeris joining hand with the upper caste to vote in favor of the BJP-Samata combine has virtually brought into existence for the first time "in Laloo's Bihar an effective alternative" to challenge his unrefined might says a political observer. According to him, 'Mr. Laloo's rhetoric could not compensate his failure to fulfill the promises he made to the people and the non-performance of his government.

According to sources in the JD, soon t dissidents in the party might clamor for a "change of guard”. There are a large number of partymen in the JD who believe that Mr. Prasad had been patronizing the animal husbandry mafiosi though the CBI has yet neither charge. sheeted nor interrogated the Chief Minister That former Regional Director of the Animal Husbandry Department, Mr. Shyam Bihari Sinha had close relations with the Chief Minister is a fact known to one and all in the state.

As the kingpin of the fodder scam Sinha was arrested by the CBI in New Delhi the very next day. Atal Behari Vajpayee was sworn in as the Prime Minister of the country, the political circles in the state are rife with rumor that the Bihar Chief Minister had spent 'extra. energy' to ensure the fall of the BJP government at the Center apparently to avoid the CBI dragnet. No other Chief Minister of the United Front or the left front had chosen to run the affairs of his state from New Delhi except for a token presence of two days in Patna. Sources in the JD said that Prasad might resort to an expansion of his ministry 'to kill the voice of dissent against him.

Nevertheless, the post poll scenario has clearly indicated that Yadav has lost substantially his bargaining capacity in national politics. Yet it is unlikely that the dissidence in the JD would immediately succeed in unseating Mr. Prasad who has already proved his ability to emerge unhurt even after confronting 'thorns' in politics. The state legislators would like the calling of JD legislature party to pour their heart out on the. debacle. But who will bell the cat?

P.M. Deve Gowda and the RSS

Deve Gowda had said at a Bangalore function held on 26.6.1995 that 'RSS is a spotless organization."

Deve Gowda, it is true, had appreciated RSS on some other occasions too. It is to be seen whether Gowda refutes the statement in the changed circumstance. But it is unnecessary for Gowda to do so. it is not as if he is accepting RSS ideology when its discipline is admired. So, it is unnecessary for Gowda to withdraw his own words.

Why should Gowda fear when he is in the company of Shri Jayaprakash Naravan in appreciating the RSS?

(Source: Kannada Prabha, Bangalore, 30 May, 1996) (Courtesy: The Organizer)

Uttam Sengupta On Laloo Prasad's Decline

Observers expected the BJP-Samata combine to do well in the state despite projections in the media that the ID and the LF would sweep the polls in Bihar. The analysis was based on the fact that while both the parties split the anti-Laloo votes in the assembly election last year, this time they had better sense and chose to join forces. Moreover, the collapse of the share of voters polled by the Congress was also expected to prompt a swing in favor of the combine.

What is more, the combine succeeded in bringing together not only the forward castes but also the Kurmis, Koeris and people belonging to some of the extremely backward classes.

That is the reason why the combine has done well not only in the predominantly upper-caste constituencies like Sheohar and Maharajganj but also in places like Sasaram, Motihari and Nalanda where support of backward castes is crucial to win the election.

What the results in Bihar indicate is that Mr. Laloo Prasad Yadav's rhetoric and charisma have possibly begun to wear thin. The intensity of support for him was much less this time and his traditional supporters were in many places indifferent to the outcome. Poor governance, the animal husbandry scandal and his failure to deliver his promises have made his supporters restive, and the more loyal among them, apologetic. This seems to have got reflected in the election this time.

A large number of Dalits in the state chose this time not to exercise their franchise. Not because of inadequate security arrangements at the polling booths. There is a distinct possibility that a large number of them may have been too indifferent to really bother. Bot even fervent appeals to Bihari pride and help Mr. Laloo Yadav become the Prime Minister cut much ice with them.

It is certainly far too early to speculate whether the results signal the beginning of the end of the Laloo-era in Bihar. The BJP-Samata Party combine continues to be a marriage of convenience and the caste groups supporting the combine are neither cohesive nor have any love lost for each other.

There is also no ideological bonding to keep the Kurmis and the Koeris on the one side and the forward castes on the other to remain, together. Now that they have taught a lesson or two to Mr. Laloo Yadav, they may just have spent their anger. Therefore, the future of the combine would depend as much on the corrective steps taken by the beleaguered Laloo Yadav but also on the future conduct of the BJP-Samata leadership in the state.

Even within his own party, Mr. Yadav has managed to alienate a large number of leaders by his "arrogance" and "inflated ego". It is almost certain that these leaders would grab this opportunity to sharpen the knives and launch an attack on the national president of the party.

 (Source: The Times of India, 11 May, 1996)

Nalin Verma On JD under Laloo Prasad Yadav.

Time will not remain the same for Bihar Chief Minister and national Janata Dal chief Laloo Prasad Yadav. The drubbings that his party received in the recently concluded elections in the State had all of a sudden snatched him of his tag of "invincibility". Further, this has threatened his position for the first time during his tenure of over six years as the Chief Minister of the State. Already, the dissidents in the party have become active squarely blaming Mr. Yadav for the party's debacle at the hustings in its stronghold.

A large number of the state JD leaders have begun stating that Mr. Yadav had lost the "magic wand" to ensure the victory of the party's candidates in the next elections. The JD and its ally the CPI won altogether 26 seats of the 54 in Parliament polls. In 1991 Lok Sabha. elections, the JD and its Allie: ad won 48 seats. The united JMM was also an ally to the JD in that election.

Besides, the JD has substantially lost its percentage of votes. The party succeeded in garnering only 23% votes in the 1996 elections against 40% in 1989 and 1991 Lok Sabha election. A major split in its backward vote bank is said to be the main reason behind the loss of its vote percentage. In fact, the powerful Kurmis, Koeris and some other backward castes joined hand with upper- castes to vote in favor of the BJP-Samata party combine which succeeded in projecting itself as an "effective alternative" to Yadav and (JD).

The choice of Laloo Yadav's nominees for Ministerial berths reflects the base of the JD. Thus, two Yadavs, a Koeri, a Muslim, a Punjabi, and two members: of the weaker sections have been appointed to the Central Ministry.

 (Source: The Hindustan Times, 4 June, 1996)

N.R. Mohanty on Laloo's Fumbling in Bihar

The Lok Sabha election in Bihar was primarily, a referendum on the Bihar C.M.'s future. The election result helped explode the myth of Mr. Yadav's invincibility.

This setback has come about primarily for two reasons. First, the split in the JD and the emergence of the Samata with a distinct social base resulted in the shrinkage of the JD vote bank. The combined support. base of the BJP and the Samata changed the picture. This combine almost equaled the voting strength of its rivals in south Bihar, though it still lagged behind in North and central Bihar.

Second, the decimation of the Congress and large- scale shift of the upper caste votes to the BJP helped in the consolidation of the anti-Laloo vote bank. The Congress performance at the state level proved to be abysmal. As many as 38 of its candidates lost their security deposit. (This) showed the extent of the shift away from its support base.

Bihar is, thus, poised for a level playing field with both the anti and pro-Laloo forces ranged against each other with almost equal strength. With the fall of the BJP regime and the induction of the JD-led coalition government, Mr. Yadav can hope to keep his rivals at bay, for the time being. However, the spectre of uncertainty looms large, given the fragile nature of the coalition.

 (Source: The Times of India, 13 June, 1996)