Every election eve, self-appointed leaders of the Muslim community set out to market votes of India's largest minority. This time, the sale began on December 28, when Jawed Habeeb - former general secretary of the Babari Masjid Action Committee - called the Qaumi Mushawarat, a gathering of little-known Muslim organisations. A five-member Ittehad Committee was set up and authorised to negotiate with different political parties.

Syed Abdullah Bukhari, the Shahi Imam of Delhi's Jama Masjid and his son, Ahmed Bukhari, were not to be outdone. Having exhausted most political options, they began sending feelers to the BJP ... While the BJP has so far kept these leaders guessing, Madhavrao Scindia, the Congress general secretary, has been talking to Habeeb.

The ruling United Front (UF) is not a favourite with the Bukharis and the Habeebs because is planning to bypass them and depend on Mulayam Singh Yadav to woo Muslims. At the Qaumi Mushawarat, Habeeb made it clear he was available for auction ....

... Clearly, the largely Delhi-centric spokespersons for India's Muslims are keen to ingratiate themselves with any political force which seems likely to form the next government at the Centre. Unfortunately for them, they are completely out of tune with the people they claim to represent.

The period after the destruction of the Babari Masjid has seen a churning within the Muslim community, particularly in northern India ... Voting strategies have thus been recast ...

Today, even Syed Shahabuddin acknowledges "Muslims must vote for secular candidates constituency- wise, rather than for a particular party". Agrees Imtiaz Ahmed, professor at Delhi's Jawaharlal Nehru University: "It is unlikely that Muslims will vote as a monolithic body for any single party."

So much for the theory. What of the reality? How will Muslims vote in the coming elections? Support for the BJP looks unlikely ..

Even so, a rethinking vis-a-vis the Shiv Sena-BJP coalition is evident in Maharashtra. True, a section still regards the ruling alliance a pariah and seems set to back Samajwadi Party (SP) or Congress candidates ...

The real laboratory for Muslim politics, of course, Uttar Pradesh, where the community form over 20 per cent of the electorate in 170 of 425 Assembly seats. Post-Ayodhya, Muslims realised that they could only succeed if they formed social coalitions with other prominent communities - such as the Yadavs and the Dalits. The precise grouping checked the BJP in 1993. This time, while the bulk of the Muslim vote is likely to go to Mulayam, his failure to join hands with the Congress and the BSP has proved a setback ...

There is greater clarity in neighbouring Bihar. While the Muslim-Yadav vote bank has been loyal to Laloo Prasad Yadav, his decision to align with the Congress has caused some disquiet.

Karnataka is another state where the Muslim vote is expected to be divided between the JD and the Congress.

Muslims make up 21 per cent of the voters in West Bengal. By and large they have been true to the Left Front (LF) but in some urban pockets have backed the Congress ...

In sum, Muslims across the country are going to vote with their heads rather than their hearts.

(Source: The India Today, 19 January, 1998)