INDO PAK RELATIONS

'Mazdak' on Indo-Pak Relations: A Pakistani View

In Pakistan, past campaigns of the 1948 and 1965 wars have been endlessly and passionately described and romanticised. While the exploits of the heroes of these conflicts are taught to every schoolboy, the death and destruction caused by these wars are glossed over. It goes without saying that the lessons of the 1971 war are taught neither in schools nor in our military academies. Although it is the best teacher, defeat seldom makes for edifying reading.

After the shattering military and political reverses of 1971 as well as the sweeping geopolitical changes that have taken place in the last quarter century, the entire balance of power in South Asia has undergone a sea change. India now enjoys a preponderant and overwhelming qualitative and quantitative military advantage over Pakistan; its economy is far larger and more diversified, and thus able to support a sophisticated defence industry; and perhaps most crucially, it is training tens of thousands of engineers and scientists every year. And although the collapse of the Soviet Union has cost it an important aily, it has improved its relations with the United States. On the other hand, we can no longer expect the same degree of unstinted support from China and Iran that our planners had earlier factored into their war games. The Americans have clearly distanced themselves from us after the exit of Soviet forces from Afghanistan.

All these factors underline our increasing isolation and a proportionate tilt in the power equation between India and Pakistan. Our nuclear programme keeps an uneasy balance, but in the absence of tests and a proven delivery system, this is not a very credible deterrent. As long as relations between the two countries remain tense, and weak governments remain hostage to their own thetoric and the hysteria they have themselves whipped up, the chances of a bloody and costly war are uncomfortably high. But this time given the technological advances made in the last two decades, the level of destruction will be unprecedented, even without recourse to nuclear weapons.

Mercifully, there are still sensible people on both sides of the border who are convinced that we must de- escalate and come to some kind of agreement over Kashmir. The nature and composition of the Indian government (has changed). The new Prime Minister is from the South, and has no emotional tie with the Valley; Inder Gujral, India has a foreign minister who has repeatedly argued for better relations with Pakistan. Granted, a large country like India does not change its policies and long-held positions overnight with a change in government, but, there is window of opportunity that we must exploit.

For a start, we must step back from our maximalist, all-or-nothing position. Nothing is going to hand over Kashmir to us on a platter, and whatever the hawks in and out of the army may think, we cannot wrest it from India by force of arms. This is an unpalatable fact of life politicians and military planners must come to terms with. Basically, we must decide who and what we are really concerned with: the Kashmiri people, or the territory of Kashmir. If we care about the former, then we should be doing something about ending the bloodshed. and the Indian occupation. Since we can do neither by force, we have to negotiate. So far, India has taken the position that since the events in the Valley are an internal problem, it will not discuss them with anybody else. It is time India got off its high horse as well.

 Both sides will have to show more flexibility and imagination if an acceptable solution to all three parties to the conflict is to be found. Whether we like it or not. the UN Resolutions of 1948 have lost much of their force: apart from lip-service from a few friends, no major player in the comity of nations thinks they are workable or enforceable. So instead of flogging a dead horse, we have to take a fresh approach.... Number of plans and possible solutions have been floated from time to time, but have been stillborn because of obduracy on both sides of the border. But, perhaps, the time has come to dust them off and let somebody mediate between India and Pakistan. So far, the former has shot down any such offer, but with the recent change in government, perhaps a behind-the- scenes initiative can work. Next year, both countries will celebrate 50 years of Independence. It would be a fitting anniversary gift to the people of the region if an end to the permanent state of hostilities could be negotiated.

(Source: The Dawan, Karachi:Courtesy: The Asian Age)