The Congress(I) president, Mrs. Sonia Gandhi's first outing as a political leader has not exactly been a roaring success. Her own reflexes and acumen have proved inadequate to meet the exigencies of a fast-changing political scenario. Nor has she been well served by her advisers. Indeed, the first veritable crisis has exposed the distortions in the decision-making system she has put together; inevitably a number of serious miscalculations have been made, complicating the task of forming an alternative government at the Centre. The prospects for a Sonia Gandhi coronation look rather doubtful.

The first strategic miscalculation the Congress(I) and Mrs. Gandhi made was to proceed on the assumption that as soon as the Vajpayee Government was voted out, its smaller allies would be deserting the BJP combine. The Congress(I)'s expectation was that the "Kalpnath Rai syndrome" would gather its own momentum and that the likes of Om Prakash Chautala would be only too happy to switch sides, one more time. There was the additional expectation that there would be splits in parties such as the Samata, the Biju Janata Dal and the Lok Shakti.

The argument was simple, if somewhat tautological: because these parties and their MPs were extremely averse to facing the electorate they could provide the proposed Sonia Gandhi government the needed support. Nothing of the kind happened because the Congress(I) managers made the silliest of tactical mistakes: they revealed their hand prematurely. By parading the first "convert", S. Vijayarama Raju, a Telugu Desam Party MP ... alerted the rivals as well as exposed itself to the charge of horse-trading ...

The second strategic miscalculation made by the Congress(I) was to assume that all those political parties and individuals who voted against the Vajpayee Government would be only too happy to line up behind Mrs. Gandhi and would feel blessed if they were to be ordered around by her office boys ... It turned out to be a season for rebellion by the minuscule and unnoticed "small fries".

Moreover, there was an unbecoming presumptuousness on the part of Mrs. Gandhi's advisers; no attempt was made to humour leaders such as Chandra Shekhar, Jayalalitha and Mulayam Singh Yadav ... Consequently, those felt slighted were only too happy to go along with any anti-Sonia Gandhi stratagem ...

The Congress(I) unilaterally announced its preference for a Congress-led minority government, with other "secular parties" extending support from outside. And Arjun Singh announced: "Mrs. Sonia Gandhi would be Prime Minister". This hamhanded approach was revealing of a preference for the old-style dynastic haughtiness; consequently, the smaller parties and individuals were not amused. And they do count in this age of coalition and fragmentation.

The resentment at the Congress(I) ham-handedness acquired a cutting edge as the various interlocutors realised that Mrs. Gandhi was relying on a small coterie, christened "Gang of Four", consisting of Arjun Singh, M. L. Fotedar, Vincent George, and R. D. Pradhan ...

.. Senior Congress(I) leaders felt involved, and were only too eager to tap their personal contacts in the rival camp to chip away at the Vajpayee Government's supporting numbers. But now senior leaders such as Sharad Pawar, Pranab Mukherjee, Jitendra Prasada, Manmohan Singh, P. A. Sangma and A. K. Antony found themselves left out of any serious business ... Old animosities and suspicions resurfaced. This resentment apart, their exclusion deprived them of opportunity to display any political initiative as well as denied Mrs. Gandhi the benefit of wider consultation and involvement.

By contrast, the Vajpayee establishment managed to tap collective anger and contacts among the BJP and its allies to checkmate Mrs. Gandhi's political moves ... The  BJP was relying on a much larger pool of political talent and skills, whereas Mrs. Gandhi was manoeuvred into becoming a hostage to her own cabal.

That is why Mrs. Gandhi made the silliest of mistakes in announcing, on April 21 in the forecourt of the Rashtrapati Bhavan that within "two days" she would produce letters of support from 272 members ... Instead of making a case that as the second largest party the Congress(I) ought to be invited to form the next government, Mrs. Gandhi was advised to bluff that she had the support of 272 MPs. This prompted Jayalalitha and Yadav to stage a drama of public repudiation of Mrs. Gandhi.

... There is no getting away from the fact that the myth of sagacity that was built around Mrs. Gandhi stands considerably weakened; rather her cronies has shown her as a woman a bit too eager to become the Prime Minister. (Source: The Hindu, 25 April, 1999)