Shankarsinh Vaghela (has) joined the Congress, having realised that the State did not have the political space for a third player. It is too early to gauge the precise electoral impact of the merger of Vaghela's Rashtriya Janata Party with the Congress ... on state politics. But this hasn't deterred Vaghela from reiterating what has been his pet obsession ever since he left the saffron brigade: "I am here to decimate the BJP".

... BJP leaders are dismissive of the merger, though they refuse to comment on it, citing Kargil as an excuse. BJP leaders are' not nervous because of last year's favourable electoral arithmetic - add the RJP's 10.21 per cent vote share to the Congress' 36.49%, and the sum is still below the saffron brigade's impressive 48.28%.

But the BJP could well become a victim of its complacency, for the merger is expected to redefine caste equations and thus forge a new arithmetic. The Faultline will be Kshatriyas (Vaghela's caste) versus the dominant Patels, and this has the potential of driving a wedge in the Hinđu monolith the BJP has created.

The urban middle classes also turned saffron, disillusioned with the Congress culture of corruption and criminalisation of politics, especially after the perception grew that it was soft on those involved in RDX trafficking and gun-running. So tight did the BJP's stranglehold become that even a section of Muslims reportedly voted for it, seeking protection.

Kshatriya and OBC support for the BJP was primarily because of Vaghela's efforts, which had helped the RSS strike deep roots among them. His moving away should thus cost the party dear, especially as he will now have the Congress machinery to back him, instead of the rudimentary RJP apparatus.

The merger also means that Vaghela an backwards leader Madhavsinh Solanki will be together in one party. This will consolidate the formidable OBC-Kshatriya coalition. This, in turn, will pave the way for Muslims to return to the Congress en bloc as a strong anti-BJP OBC-Kshatriya alliance will enthuse them to shake off their indifference and work to defeat the saffron party as the Sangh's hyperactivism in the last year has made Muslims insecure all over again ... The Patel community is riven between the Leuvas and Karwas. The chief minister is a Leuva ... If the divide widens, the BJP might rue its expulsion of Vaghela. (Source: Rathin Das in The Hindustan Times, 11 July, 1999)