In 1998 General Election, 30 Muslims were elected to the Lok Sabha, 26 from 70 Muslim-concentration ('Muslim') constituencies and 4 from the rest of the 473 Constituencies in the country:

It is clear that the scope for increase lies only in the second category of 59 Muslim concentration (but not Muslim majority) constituencies.

A further analysis shows the party-wise break-up of the 44 seats won by non-Muslims:

BJP                  23

INC                 8

LF                   7

S.P.                  2

ADMK            1

PMK               1

SHS                 1

TDP                 1

The conclusion is irresistible that had the secular parties , the INC, the LF, the SP and the TDP put up Muslim candidates, there would be 18 more Muslims in Lok Sabha.

And had the impossible happened and the secular parties formed an alliance or made adjustment or come to understanding with each other and put up a common Muslim candidate, given a one-to-one fight to the BJP and its allies there could be 25 more Muslim MP's!

Fractured, though the Muslim Indians are, as a run-up to the General Election, the Muslim Parliamentarians held a Consultation in October, 1998 and cautioned the political parties of the growing anxiety in the Muslim Indians about their persisten: under-representation in legislatures and, therefore, with the Secular Order itself and requested them, inter alia, to field more Muslim candidates and not to divide the secular votes, in general and the Muslim votes, in particular, in 'Muslim' constituencies. The political parties paid no attention.

The Muslim elite, for the first time, in the history of independent India, came forward in May, 1999 to adopt a Declaration on Empowerment of the Muslim Indians which, inter alia, asked for equitable representation of the community in the Central and State legislatures to give them a sense of participation and an opportunity to contribute their energy for the  development of the nation. Once again the political parties ignored the appeal.

A third initiative was taken jointly by 5 premier Muslim organisations, all non-political, the All India Muslim Majlis-e-Mushawarat, the All India Milli Council, the Jamiat-ul-Ulema-Hind, the Jamaat-e-Islami-Hind and the All India Muslim Personal Law Board. They submitted a Muslim Agenda to the major political parties for incorporation in their manifestoes. Once again, they were also requested to close ranks in defence of secularism, rise above partisan interests and form an alliance or come to a nation-wide adjustment. They were also requested to field a common Muslim candidate at least in the 'Muslim' constituencies.

All this exercise has gone in vain. If the election manifestoes of the Congress and the CPM are any indication, the secular parties have simply ignored the anguish of the Muslim community at their continued deprivation and their poor share in development outlay and welfare allocations ..

Secondly, the lists of candidates released so far also indicate a negative trend. If one eliminates the candidates, for the record only, like the CPM/CPI candidates in Poonani and Manjeri constituencies in Kerala or of other parties in constituencies with very low Muslim proportion in the electorate, one is left with very few winnable Muslim candidates of all secular parties put together.

For deeper analysis 'Muslim' constituencies can be put into 3 categories: a) with more then one Muslim candidates; b) with only one Muslim candidate; and c) with no Muslim candidate of the parties relevant thereto in the light of their past performance.

It is obvious that no Muslim will get elected even from a 'Muslim' Constituency, if no Muslim is fielded by any major political party; that in case of more than one Muslim contesting against another, a non-Muslim fielded by another secular party, or more probably by the BJP, may win

One concludes that it is most unlikely that the number of Muslims in the coming Lok Sabha will exceed 25, i.e. 4.6% of the total strength or 36.8% of what it ought to be. Can Indian democracy be called a genuine democracy if the biggest minority in the country suffers a deprivation level of 63.2%?

There is almost complete polarisation in the electoral arena between the BJP and its allies, on one hand, and the Congress and its allies, on the other. Since Muslim Indians constitute only 12.5% of the electorate (though proportions may vary widely from state to state) and since democracy is a game of numbers, no political party, with the possible exception of the BSP in UP and the RJD in Bihar, are prepared to take the risk of fielding Muslim candidates even in a majority of 'Muslim' constituencies (above 20 per cent) because, with all their commitment to secularism and declaration of faith in the secular consciousness of the masses and all their claims of having deep roots in the people, they are unabie to transfer their non-Muslim votes to Muslim candidates. Further, no political party is secular enough to give the Muslims their due if this would mean blotting its books in the hundreds of Hindu-dominated constituencies. Thus, no secular party wants to be perceived as making any accommodation, far less any concession, to the Muslim community or even as articulating their legitimate grievances and aspirations except in vague and idealistic terms. If the name of the game is power why should any political party, even a regional party, adopt an adventurist course? So, as a token of its secular outlook, at best it offers some sops and some unwinnable Muslim candidates to attract as many Muslim votes as possible, without losing any Hindu support.

But to gauge the true depth of Muslim frustration, one has to take into account the fact that fewer capable Muslim MP's in a parliamentary group, the less vocal they are likely to be in articulating the aspirations of the community, which is a legitimate expectation of the Muslim community. In our system a legislator has a multi-dimensional function; he represents the people of his Constituency, the people of the country as a whole and his own community.

Granted that the political climate is not as much communal as it is casteist, inter-caste rivalry has, on one hand, dulled the edges of inter-religious friction but appears, on the other, to lead, by common consent, to exclusion of Muslim Indians from representation in the power structure.

Secular voters, in general, and Muslim voters in particular, except in Kerala and West Bengal and Karnataka and questionably in UP, have no choice but to vote for the Congress and its allies, if they want the BJP to be defeated. Had there been two secular formations anxious to attract the Muslim votes, the situation could have yielded some marginal benefits for the Muslim Indians.

So the secular parties have learnt no lesson. Either they deliberately ignore the Muslims and take them for granted, or the grip of the dominant Hindu castes/groups on the secular parties is so tight that they are compelled to put up non-Muslim candidates from Muslim concentration constituencies. And of course all of them are too egoistic to agree to a principled distribution of seats.

However, the times are changing. the Muslim Indians will no longer beg the secular parties for seats or appeal to their good sense. The survival of. secularism is not the responsibility of the Muslim Indians alone, or of the religious minorities only. If the standard-bearers of democracy remains silent spectators of persistent denial of representation to the Muslim Indians, if those who flaunt their commitment to Social Justice deny justice to the Muslim Indians, pressure will build up for the organisation of a full-fledged Muslim political party - not a non- political centre, as I have been suggesting so far.

State-wise Position as on 25 August, 1999

No Muslim Candidate in 'Muslim' Constituencies

In the circumstances, as a first step the Muslim community, to give expression to its anguish and frustration, should modify its electoral strategy for the coming general election. The point of departure can be that in 'Muslim' Constituencies they would vote for the most winnable Muslim candidate while in other 473 Constituencies they would vote for the strongest winnable candidate - irrespective of  religion, capable of defeating the BJP/NDA candidate.

Suggested Guideline for 70 Muslim-concentration Constituencies

1. If more than one Muslim candidates have been put up by relevant political parties, the Muslim voters should vote for the candidate of the party which had the better position in 1998.

2. If there is only one Muslim candidate put up by any relevant secular party (among the first two or three in 1998), the Muslim community should vote for him, irrespective of the party.

3. If no Muslim candidate has been put up by a relevant party, the Muslim community shsould, in protest, abstain from voting, whatever the impact on the result.

This may serve to wake up the secular parties and, at the same time, underline the resolve of the Muslim Indians to use their electoral strength for securing due representation in the legislature.

New Delhi

1s September, 1999