The "stark realities" that stare the party in the face are as follows: One, until 1998 the Congress could claim that whether or not it came to power in an election, it had the biggest share of the popular vote and no other political party was anywhere near it. This is no longer the case. The Congress' vote share is down to 25.72 per cent and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) which has 25.38 per cent is now breathing down its neck.
Two, for the first time after Independence, the Congress has lost its perch as the party with the widest electoral support and as the only pan-Indian party. The BJP has now snatched this trophy from the Congress. After the recent election, the BJP has representatives in the Lok Sabha from more states and union territories than the Congress.
Three, since 1989, the vote share of the Congress in parliamentary elections has fallen by 14 per cent whereas that of the BJP has risen by 14 per cent.
... The extent of the downslide can be gauged from the fact that since 1952, the Congress party's vote share has dropped by a staggering 20 per cent
The trajectory of the BJP curve on the other hand has been almost undirectional. Beginning with a humble 3.10 per cent of the vote in 1952 when it was known as the Janss Sangh, the party made slow progress during the Nehru and Indira Gandhi eras ... Since 1952, the Jan Sangh- Bharatiya Janata Party's vote share has improved by 22 per cent. In other words, its gains almost correspond to the Congress party's losses.
... After the recent Lok Sabha poll, there is clear evidence that the country now has two national parties -the Congress and the BJP.
In 1996, the Congress has won seats in 26 of the 32 states and union territories despite its vote share dropping to 28.80 per cent. No other political party could boast of such a wide political base. The BJP, which bagged seats in 12 states and union territories, lagged far behind and was a poor second to the Congress. All other parties, many of them described as "national" parties by the Election Commission, were not in the race at all ...
The story is however different in 1998. This time the Congress has won seats in 17 states and 3 union territories where the BJP has picked up seats in 17 states and 4 union territories, which means the latter has MPs from more states and union territories than the Congress. Between 1996 and 1998, the Congress' representation in the Lok Sabha has shrunk from 26 states and union territories to 20 whereas that of the BJP has risen from 12 of these units to 21.
Yet another indicator which shows that it is now a neck and neck race between these two parties is the number of constituencies where each of these parties registered a victory or was the runner-up in the recent election. The Congress contested 462 seats, won 141 seats, and stood second in 157 constituencies. The BJP contested 384 seats, won 180 seats and stood second in 125 others ... Between 1996 and 1998, the vote share of the Janata Dal has crashed from 8.80 to 3.20 per cent ...
The CPI vote share has dropped from 1.97 to 1.74 per cent while the CPI(M) has seen a fall in popular support from 6.12 to 5.21 per cent. The two Communist parties have together dropped just over one per cent of the vote over the last two years. The disastrous performance of the UF in this election could be interpreted as the voters rejection of the Third Front. The only national party which has withstood the onslaught of the BJP in these elections is the BSP. Its share of the vote has risen ... from 3.64 to 4.66 per cent even though it's seats in Parliament is down from 11 to 5.
But coming back to the Congress and the BJP, what the future holds for each of them will depend on how they read these electoral trends. The Congress cannot hope to recover ground unless it consciously sheds its cultivated opposition to regional parties and coalition politics. There is enough evidence since 1989 to slow that it can no longer hope to win a mandate on its own, even if its leader is a member of the Nehru-Gandhi family. Voters in many states have shown a preference for regional Congress parties which espouse local causes or other regional parties. The Congress will therefore have to go out of the way to assure smaller parties that it is willing to share power with them and is reconciled to the realities of the coalition era.
The BJP, on the other hand, will have to guard against misreading the 1998 verdict as an improved mandate for its core philosophy. A good part of the electoral support that it secured in the recent election can be traced to its strategic alliance with the AIADMK in Tamil Nadu, the BJD in Orissa, the Lok Shakti in Karnataka and the Samata Party in Bihar.
Its decision to project a moderate like Mr. Vajpayee as its prime ministerial candidate also helped it to win over new supporters. These alliances can be retained only if the party operates within the ambit of the National Agenda ... Any restlessness within the BJP on this score could drive away sensitive alliance partners and throw the party back to the electoral plateau that it hit in the first half of the 1990s.
The 1998 poll has dramatically brought these two parties on par. Where they go from here will depend on the lessons they draw from cold electoral statistics ... (Source: The Pioneer, April 13, 1998)
