NATIONAL POLITICS
The alienation of the minority community with the party had already begun at the time when Rajiv Gandhi, as Prime Minister, broke open the locks of the Babari Masjid and held the Shilanyas (foundation laying ceremony) on the Masjid's grounds. The complete betrayal came six years later when the mosque was torn down. The riots and violence targeted against Muslims that followed after the demolition of the Babari Masjid convinced the community that Rao and the Congress had left them to their own mercy. Rao's inaction confirmed their suspicion that the party was shifting away from its centrist position. The resentment was fully visible in State Assembly elections in 1994 and 1995.
In the 10 States that went to poll, the Congress could only win four Madhya Pradesh, Orissa, Arunachal Pradesh and Goa. The big shock came in the Deccan. Its once traditional bastion Maharashtra, the Congress came a poor second while in Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka, it lagged miserably behind. In Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, the party was almost wiped out. "There was a time in the pre- Ayodhya days when the first priority of the community was to defeat the BJP and they backed any winning candidate be it Congress or the National Front," says an observer. "Today, even if the only candidate who could threaten the BJP is a congressman, they won't vote for him"
According to a senior Congress leader, the anger and frustration the minority community felt against the Congress has cooled down considerably. "Their anger has diluted", he says, "and their unhappiness with the BJP and the lack of another alternative, the Congress may get the negative vote which is quite favorable." This situation, he hastens to add, will come only if the Third Force (non-Congress, non-BJP secular parties) does not get its act together. He also believes that this is what the party high command is banking on. The other dilemma for the community, he says, is that even if its members vote for the Congress, they still have Rao to contend with as there is no alternative to his leadership in the party as yet.
The party has tried to salvage this dismal situation vis-a-vis the Muslims in a superficial way. Both Rao and Chavan have been busy cultivating Muslim religious leaders but not every occasion has gone favorably for the due. The Prime Minister's visit to the famous Dargah in Bareilly in July was marred by shouting mobs. "Lahol wa-la quwwat," they said, "Vanish you devil", and Rao who waited for three hours... had to beat a hasty retreat. However, three months later, Chavan set off on the same mission and under tight security, he could offer the chadar (cloth), but as soon as he left, local residents washed the shrine to "purify" it.
Feelers were also sent to persuade Ali Mian, Chairman of the Muslim Personal Law Board to soften his stand on the Congress but other members of the Board forced an undertaking on Ali Mian that he would not make any such utterances. On the recommendation of the Supreme Court the Government has declared its intention to improve the salaries of the "pesh imams," who lead the prayers in the mosque, to a more dignified level. "This is also the only Cabinet in history which has the maximum number of Muslim Ministers. Of course, the Government has not capitalized on it", says an analyst. The Government also set up the Rs. 500 crore Minorities Finance Commission last year. But the Muslims are unmoved by these gestures.
"The community has realized that these are mere cosmetic changes. They want concrete proposals on education, jobs, development... None of that has come yet," says the senior Congress leader. In fact there is a sharp division in the party on the kind of benefits to be given to the community.
While a section led by Welfare Minister Sitaram Kesri feels that the package should have some serious handouts like reservation, etc. the other side which includes Rao believe that the Muslims are lost forever and they need only make those gestures that will restore the party's secular credentials.
The vocal section of the party has launched an aggressive campaign with two of its well-known Muslim faces Civil Aviation Minister Ghulam Nabi Azad and Congress All India Minority Cell chairperson Tariq Anwar. Taking the cue from Kesri, both leaders have expressed their commitment to reservation... and have promised them that they will work to make it an official policy.
But Sharief's resignation, feels Anwar, can disturb the efforts being made to woo the Muslims.
Neither are many party members impressed by the Centre's efforts to woo Muslims. Minister of State for External Affairs Salman Khursheed had recently expressed his doubts. The mood of the minority community is still not favorable to the Congress despite efforts to win them back. It would be incorrect to say we have won them over." The way it is going there is little reason to believe that the Congress convince the Muslims to forgive.
(Source: The Pioneer, 3 December, 1995)
The proposed third front would be a new year gift for the people in the country.
Jyoti Basu, CM of West Bengal
Saeed Naqvi On Shahabuddin's Entry in Politics
When the Janata Government came to power in 1977, Atal Behari Vajpayee became the Foreign Minister. Syed Shahabuddin was then a Joint Secretary in the MEA. It was Vajpayee's search for a "liberal" Muslim leader that led to Shahabuddin being drafted into the political arena. And look what happened. Shahabuddin began to create a constituency among the minorities and played a leading role in vitiating Hindu-Muslim relations in the country. It must be said to his credit that he has realized his mistakes.
(Source: The Pioneer, 17 December, 1995)
The Mythical Vote bank Editorial, The Times of India, 27 Nov., 1995
One of the greatest myths generated by sectarian politicians and bad pollsters in modern India is existence of a minority vote bank. Electoral research has conclusively proved that not only minorities of various regions and provinces vote very differently, but even within the same region there are differential voting patterns even between neighboring constituencies. The myth emerged from the fact that until 1962 the community voted predominantly for the Congress party. But so did the majority community, except that relatively greater percentage of Muslims voted for the Congress. Between 1962 and 1971, the Muslim voted more or less on the same pattern as the Hindus. From 1977 to 1984, the Congress showed a lower percentage of votes in constituencies with a higher predominance of Muslim population compared to those with less, showing that in the post-Emergency period the Muslim voters had moved away from the Congress. The pattern that began in 1977 more or less continues. The alienation of large sections of the community from the Congress and their identification with the "third-front" constituents has become more pronounced after Ayodhya and the Bombay riots... Differential pattern of voting, increasingly evident among the forward and backward sections of the Muslim does away with the theory of the Muslim constituting a monolith.
In fact, Harry Blair in his research on Muslim voting patterns in Bihar has demonstrated that population percentages of minorities within a constituency acted as a critical variable: while constituencies with higher population of Muslims voted for confessional parties and Muslim candidates, those below the critical 25% population voted strategically for the most likely candidate to win. When below 10%, Muslims within a constituency voted like their Hindi brethren. What better proof that Indian voters, Muslim or otherwise, may be passionate but no bigoted.
Shahabuddin's Reply to the Pioneer, 20 December, 1995
Mr. Saeed Naqvi in his article "Is a liberal Muslim. leadership possible" has come again repeated the falsehood that Atal Bihari Vajpayee, the then Foreign Minister had drafted me into the political arena in 1978. To nail the lie, I must place it on record that I had resigned on my own and my resignation on 18 November, 1978 from the Indian Foreign Service was in fact the culmination of my thinking since the imposition of the Emergency in 1975. I was dissuaded from doing so by Shri R.K. Trivedi, the Joint Secretary Personnel who advised me to wait for a couple of years because the government was working on the 20-year Rules. In fact, I was the first beneficiary of the 20-year Rule in the whole country in the IFS, IAS and IPS after its introduction in August, 1978. Atalji, with whom I had the privilege of working tried to dissuade me at least three times. I had planned to resign on 14 November, 1978, the birthday of Jawaharlal Nehru. At his request I agreed to defer the D- Day by four days, because of the impending conclusion of an agreement with Indonesia on maritime boundaries.
It is also a fact that I left Delhi the very next day for Patna with the intention of starting legal practice. It was after the sudden death of Shri P. Chatterjee (Rajya Sabha) in June, 1979, that a vacancy arose and I was elected to the Rajya Sabha in July, 1979 on the ticket of the then Janata Party.
I was nominated unanimously as the candidate at the last meeting of the Janata Party Parliamentary Board in early July. Shri Vajpayee indeed supported my nomination which was proposed by Chandra Shekhar.
In the first meeting of the National Executive of the Janata Party. I raised the question and expressed my doubt whether RSS had been charged on being embraced by the Janata Party and Shri Advani took it seriously enough to give a reply.
Rajiv Shukla on BJP's Rise
In Bihar the BJP is making steady headway after Nitish Kumar broke away from the Samata Party. The party can now hope to get a bulk of the Kurmi votes in that state. And the support of socialist leader George Fernandes and Muslim leader Abdul Gaffar will also help the BJP to get a few more seats from Bihar. All this will come in handy for the BJP to make a serious bid for power at the Centre.
(Source: The Sunday, 10-16 December, 1995)
