NATIONAL POLITICS

Electoral Report of Congress: An Overview

Askari H. Zaidi in The Times of India, 21 March, 1996

As the general elections for the Congress party have always been personality-oriented, the stake for Narasimha Rao is to prove that he is no less capable of winning an election than the members of the Nehru-Gandhi family.

Party circles also feel that if Mr. Rao manages the party to power (the Congress victory in the last election was largely attributed to the sympathy vote after the assassination of Mr. Rajiv Gandhi) it would be the end of the Nehru-Gandhi family's dominance.

“The Congress had won 232 seats in the last elections in House of 543. Party spokesman V.N. Gadgil claims "the congress will get about 300 seats this time".

Mr. Gadgil said, that the Congress has always got about 35 per cent votes even when it failed to form the government. "So, basically we have to secure about 10 per cent additional votes. And this will not be a problem given the fact that the Opposition is hopelessly divided and we have given a stable and performing government".

Secondly, "out of the 232 seats that we won in the last election, in 140 seats Congress candidates had a victory margin of more than 50,000 votes. We will not have any problem in winning these seats this time as well. Moreover, about 75 party candidates lost with a margin of less than 10,000 votes. They can easily improve this time".

As for the poll strategy, Mr.Gadgil said "we have not all-India strategy except secking votes in the name of stability, development and social harmony. Political situation and issues vary from state to state.

The Congress adversaries, however, discount Mr. Gadgil's optimism, saying it is going to lose many of the existing seats because of the turnaround in the situation in several states where Opposition parties dealt a severe defeat Rao appears to the Congress in the last assembly elections.

For instance, the Congress had won 38 seats out of a total of 48 seats in Maharashtra in the 1991 poll. But, in the last assembly elections, the BJP-Shiv Sena combine ousted he Congress from power.

Similarly is the case with Karnataka, where the Congress won 23 of the 28 seats in the elections. However, the Janata Dal's coming to power in the state in the last assembly poll has put a big question mark on the Congress party's ability to repeat the performance.

Moreover, the Congress does not seem to have made any headway in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar which jointly account for 139 seats. Also, a large sections of the Muslims (due to tie demolition of the Babari Masjid), Scheduled Castes (because of the growing influence of Kanshi Ram's BSP) and backward castes (due to the continuing influence of leaders like Mulayam Singh and Laloo Prasad Yadav) are still alienated from the Congress, particularly in the north.

Mr.Gadgil, however, says that the split of the Telugu Desam Party in Andhra Pradesh, the power struggle in the Gujarat BJP and political instability in Uttar Pradesh will adversely affect the Opposition parties. "As far as Muslims in Uttar Pradesh are concerned, there is a rethinking among them towards the Congress party. At least in Maharashtra they have shown a definite inclination towards the Congress. The Congress also hope to benefit from the recent CBI action in the hawala case. The charge sheeting of Advani has demolished the myth that the BJP is a clean and disciplined party," says Mr. Gadgil.

Political observers, however, feel the Narasimha Rao government's failure to introduce the Lok Pal Bill covering the Prime Minster in the last parliamentary session may deprive the Congress of any electoral advantage.

Not only the opposition parties but also some of the charge sheeted former ministers like Madhavrao Scindia had termed the CBI action as "politically motivated" To remove the charge and demonstrate that the government was serious about cleansing the electoral system, it was necessary for the government to bring about electoral reforms before the general elections, which it failed to do.

In the given circumstances, working out the BSP in Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Punjab and Haryana and with the AIADMK in Tamil Nadu can give a distinct edge to the Congress.

CPI(M): Statement by G.S. H.S. Surjeet On Stand towards the Indian National League(INL)

 The CPI(M) had time and again stated that it would not join hands with any communal party. The possibility of the Left and the INL supporting the same candidates in the coming election as indicated by the West Bengal Chief Minister, Mr. Jyoti Basu it would depend on the person being fielded in a given constituency. "If the person is secular minded, then may be that could happen".

The Left  should be able to reach out to the Muslim masses. The Left has been a consistent fighter in defense of the rights of the minorities. When Babari Masjid was demolished, the Left was in the forefront of the struggle. No other party had taken such a position.

Congress; Playing a Dangerous Game of Dividing Muslims Views of Md. Ishtiaq Husain Qureishi, Lucknow

Muslims are not bonded in perpetuity to any political party, nor are they against any other on a perennial basis. They support or oppose a party on issues like any other group of free, law-abiding citizens. They don't act on orders from foreign governments or as agents of foreign intelligence outfits.

We are witnessing a dangerous game of divide and rule being played by Congress on the Muslim community. They are under the delusion that the Barelvi sect can be led up the garden path easily. Sadly, when Prime Minister Rao visited Bareli to launch his grand plan, he was booed away by irate Muslims, Barelvi and non-Barelvi alike. The party tried it once again in Kanpur, with equally disastrous consequences.

Had the Congress party been sincere, it would not have needed to resort to cheap gimmicks. Muslims had sportingly tolerated discrimination in jobs and consistent undermining of their cultural symbols like Urdu. However, when the Babari Masjid was destroyed with government help and use of a hundred and one subterfuges Muslims finally decided that Congress party was not to be believed in future. Then followed a long night of anti-Muslim violence and government-sponsored witch-hunt under TADA. Muslims became sure in the knowledge that governmental promises were not meant to be fulfilled.

However, let it be clearly understood that if Muslims are not somebody's "dumb, driven cattle", they are nobody's foes either. Like other sections of citizenry, they take their constitutionally ordained duty to elect fair- minded, active, efficient persons to power. If they have to oppose corrupt and discredited people in the line of their constitutional duty, they do not become anti-national for doing so-not by any stretch of imagination. Anyway, by now, Muslims have been thoroughly immunized (against) such wild accusations. Without fear, they call a spade a spade.

A sinister move is being made to render Muslims ineffective by dividing their votes and allowing BJP to win as a result. Muslim-baiters feel they can repeat the success they got through this strategy in recent panchayat and municipal polls by spending lavishly.

Interestingly, Muslim ministers in Union Government have lately been given a long rope - they have been allowed to speak against the government to create the false impression that the government is not really culpable for the excesses against Muslims, that it had only committed some sincere error of judgement and that others took advantage of the mistakes. According to this line of thinking, Congress is the only savior of Muslims, for has it not started investigating the problems of Muslims? The Congress has managed to keep on investigating those problems for half a century by the Akhilesh Tripathi

On Muslim Votes in UP

A splintered third force in Uttar Pradesh has turned the electoral choice into a ticklish question for Muslims. The Congress(1) has finally lost hopes of wooing back the community's votes. (Failure) by the SP and the BSP to forge an alliance threatens to divide the Muslim votes too in this most populous state of India where Muslims account for over 16 per cent votes. But more than that the concentration of Muslims in 23 out of 85 constituencies of UP lends them a crucial weight.

Division of Muslim votes almost looks likely a reality. BSP may field a lot of Muslims on its ticket from nearly 30 constituencies which will eventually divide the Muslim votes lending advantage to the BJP.

To muddy the political waters even more, two small Muslim parties have formed a "Muslim Morcha" which has announced its plan to contest the elections in the state and also to seek seat adjustments with secular and leftist forces. The two constituents of the Morcha are Indian National League and the All India Muslim Forum. The two constituents are trying to rope in the Muslim Majlis (Secular) led by Zulfiqarallah, an almost moribund party and the Bharatiya Loktantrik Party led by Dr. Masood Ahmad, former Education Minister in Mulayam Singh Ministry.

The front is sum total of four zeros. But it may confuse the choices for Muslims in Muslim dominated constituencies.

Assessment of the Muslim mood indicates that the community is likely to plump for secular parties who are already assured of the votes of a sizable section of Hindus, be they SCs, STS or OBCs. The emergence of the Morcha is therefore totally in conflict with the interest as well as the current disposition of the community.

Muslim Vote Power in UP

time the investigation is over it would be too late in the day for any worthwhile salvage.

(Source: The Nation and the World)

The Third Front A Nebulous Enigma Smita Gupta in The Times of India,

23 March, 1996

A year ago, the yet-to-gel Third Front's (TF) chances of coming to power at the Centre appeared bright, with the Congress almost non-existent in vast tracts of the Hindi heartland and the BJP yet to make inroads in the south. But today the question that needs to be asked is whether the TF has "the will, vision and leadership" to become a reality.

The victories of the JD in the assembly elections in Karnataka and that of the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) in AP in 1994, followed by the return of Laloo Prasad in Bihar in 1995 convinced these two National Front (NF) Constituents that they were on the comeback trail.

Since then, factional fighting, personal ambitions of the JD's leading lights, combined with an uninspiring president took its toll. Even the election of Laloo Prasad Yadav as party president has so far failed to galvanize the party: The fodder scam has occupied most of his attention. Worse, the TDP suffered a split last year, followed by the death of its supremo, N.T. Rama Rao. The NF's flirtation last year with the All-India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) drove one of its founding members, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhgham (DMK) led by K. Karunanidhi, out of the front. The AIADMK is now hoping for an alliance with the Congress. Today, it is the Left - particularly the CPI(M) rather than the JD which is playing a pivotal role in the formation of the TF.

The BSP joining the JD-SP combine in UP seems unlikely. If the TF has an advantage over its predecessor in 1989 in that it is ideologically cohesive - since the BJP is not (repeat not) part of it - the leadership question has yet to be settled unlike in 1989, when V.P. Singh was clearly identified as the leader.

So far, the TF remains a nebulous entity. Its electoral prospects will depend largely on how many political parties it is able to attract into its fold. For the moment, it remains a concept based on opposition to the Congress and the BJP to the New Economic Policy (NEP) initiated by the former and the communal politics of the latter... Those currently in the TF are clearer on the communal question than on economic policy.

An Appeal to Political Parties, Independent Candidates and Individual Voters

It is important and urgent that all concerned political parties, individual candidates and the electorate- should take immediate steps to ensure that only honest candidates with a clean record of public service, unblemished by any involvement in shady deals with criminal or anti-social elements, and only those not guilty of bribery, corruption, nepotism or any electoral offences, incitement to communalism, casteism or religious fanaticism are put up for election. If the various political parties put up candidates with doubtful antecedents or anti-national, anti-social, communal prejudices, then the electorate must ensure that such candidates are defeated and that only those candidates with clean public record of service are elected. The same test should be applied to independent or party nominees.

We appeal to all patriotic Indians to heed this appeal and give it wide publicity by organizing meetings, launching campaigns, canvassing support in favor of only honest candidates with a clean record and against those whose honesty and integrity are doubtful or shady.

Let every person eligible to vote exercise his right and cast his or her vote wisely and correctly so that the new, elected Lok Sabha and State legislatures may comprise honest, dedicated, efficient and really patriotic individuals who have the people's interest at heart and not that of moneybags, blackmarketeers or anti-social and criminal elements.

Mother India expects every Indian to stand for the country's and people's welfare and against all elements. who want to disrupt the rule of law, and the sacred principles of secularism, democracy, equality and justice enshrined in our Constitution be counted on the side of her honor and dignity and against corruption, communalism and casteism.

Jai Hind

Dharma Vira                     T.N. Kaul                   S.K. Singh

Rajindar Sachar                Soli Sorabji                Habib Tanvir

Sonal Mansingh                Danial Latifi              Ashwini Kumar

M.S. Rasgotra                   J.N. Dhamija              V.K. Ahuja

Paul Gregorius                 P.N. Srivastava            V.P. Dutt

and others