The Centre for Development Studies, Thiruvananthapuram, has undertaken the first systematic and comprehensive study of migration and emigration from Kerala. The first Working Paper, published in September, 1999 contains valuable data on their impact on Kerala's society and economy and their effect on various communities. By the courtesy of the CDS and the Project Director Prof. K.C. Zachariah, relevant extracts have been reproduced - Editor.

Migration Situation in Kerala in 1998:

At the State level, there were altogether 3.75 million migrants. With an estimated 6.35 million households in1998, the MPR is 60 per cent. This means that corresponding to every 100 households in1998, there were 60 migrants ...

Emigrants:

According to this study, the best estimate of the number of emigrants from Kerala in the second half of 1998 was 1.36 millions.

Emigration from Kerala has accelerated in recent years, the number progressively increasing from year to year. Between 1988/92 and 1993/97 the number of emigrants increased by 120 per cent ..

Arab countries of the Middle East were the destination of 95 per cent of the emigrants with Saudi Arabia alone accounting for nearly 40 per cent of the total. Outside the Arab world, the principal destination of Kerala emigrants was the United States of America, which accounted for 2.2 per cent of the total ...

The principal place of origin of emigrants from Kerala is the Malappuram-Thrissur area. A secondary centre is the Thiruvananthapuram district. The largest number of emigrants was from Malappuram - about 297 thousand or more than a fifth of the total. Thiruvananthapuram was next in the order, but with only 131 thousand or 10 percent of the total. Thrissur, Palakkad, Kozhikode, Kollam and Ernakulam had nearly 100 thousand each ...

Internal Migration

.. After integration, for the first time, Kerala became a net out-migration state ...

Sex composition of emigrants and out-migrants varied considerably by community. The proportion of females was very small among Muslims (4.7 per cent among emigrants and only 3.0 per cent among out-migrants). The highest proportion was among Christians, over 20 per cent among emigrants and 38 per cent among out-migrants ...

There are significant community-wise differences with respect to educational differentials of the migrants. The proportion of persons with a secondary school certificate is higher among migrants in all communities; but that is not the case of the proportion of persons with degree. Among Scheduled Castes and Muslims, the proportion of degree holders was lower among out-migrants than among the general population. There are also considerable differences in the "less than secondary" category.

Inter-Community Differences

There are inter-community differences in the degree of occupational selectivity. For example, migration rate among the unemployed varied from 68 per cent among Muslims to 34 per cent among Syrian Christians and to 1.5 per cent among the Scheduled Castes. The average for all communities together is 14.8 per cent. Similarly, among those who were working in the private sector the emigration rate varied from 51 per cent among Syrian Christians to 33 per cent among Muslims and to 4 per cent among scheduled castes (the overall average for all was 14.7 per cent.

Among the factors associated with migration, community status is one of the most powerful. If one is a Muslim one's chance of emigratipn is 2.2 (49 per cent) times the general average (22 per cent). On the other hand, his chance of out-migration (6.3 per cent) is only 0.55 times the general average (11.5 per cent). The chance of Syrian Christians to emigrate is just about the general average, but their chance for out-migration is 1.9 times the general average (22.1 per cent). The lowest probability for migration, emigration as well as out-migration, was among the Scheduled Castes (15 per cent of the general average for emigration and 50 per cent for out-migration).

Viewed from another angle, more than one-half the number of emigrants were Muslims and 13 per cent Ezhawas, 12 per cent Syrian Christians, 8 per cent Latin Christians and 8 per cent Nairs. The Scheduled Castes constituted only 1.4 per cent.

No such skewed distribution is seen among out-migrants. Ezhawas constituted 23 per cent; Nairs and Syrian Christians were about 20 per cent each; and Latin Christians and Muslims accounted for about 12 per cent each. Scheduled Castes came to only about 5 per cent.

Remittances and Import of Consumer Durables

An estimate of the total cash remittances received by Kerala households during a 12-month period in 1998 was Rs.35,304 millions.

The average remittance was about Rs. 25 thousand per emigrant (Rs.5,500 per household and Rs.1105 per capita). Cash remittances constituted about 9.3 per cent of the State Domestic product. If the remittances were added to the SDP, the per capita DP would have beenRs.13,041 instead of the actual of Rs.11,936. The annual remittances received by the Kerala households were 2.55 times higher than what Kerala Government received from the Central Government, as budget support.

Besides cash, households received several items in kind - clothing, ornaments and jewellery, electric and electronic gadgets; the total value of goods received was Rs.5,413 million. Thus, total remittances (cash plus goods) came to Rs.40,717 million or 10.7 per cent of SDP.

Inter-community variations in total remittances show the same pattern as inter-community differentials in the number of emigrants. Malappuram received 17 per cent of the total remittances. Thrissur was next with 14 per cent and Ernakulam stood third with 13 per cent.

Muslims received 47 per cent of the total remittances. Ezhawas and Syrian Christians each had received about 13 per cent. Latin Christians received 11 per cent and Nairs about 9 per cent. However, it was not Muslim households which received the highest per emigrant remittances. An average Latin Christian emigrant sent back Rs.33 thousand per year and an average Syrian Christian emigrant Rs.27 thousand. In contrast, the average remittance per Muslim emigrant was Rs.24 thousand only.

Community of a person is very strongly associated with higher migration propensities: In the case of emigration, the migration propensity is 1.8 times the general average in the case of Muslims and 1.3 times for Syrian Christians. All other communities have lower than average migration propensities. In the case of out-migration, Muslims have the lowest migration propensity ... Nearly 51 per cent of the emigrants were from Muslim households; and Muslim households received nearly 50 per cent of the remittances from abroad. At the same time, Muslims have the highest illiteracy rate, and the lowest proportion of persons with secondary school certificate.

End-Use of Remittances

The major end use of remittances is reported to be household consumption; 86 per cent of the households mentioned living expenses as the main expenditure item met out of remittances. The other important uses were education (36 per cent), repayment of debt (27 per cent), construction and repairs of buildings (11 per cent), and bank deposits (8 per cent).

One of the priority items of disposition of an emigrant's savings was improvement of the quality of his housing. Although a large number of emigrant households used a significant part of the remittances they received for education of their children, not much difference is observed in this respect between emigrant's and non-migrant's households ...

Utilisation of Remittances

Malappuram District sent out the largest number of emigrants (270 thousand); and it received the largest amount (Rs.6,295 million) by way of remittances from abroad. Malappuram has the highest birthrate, the highest rate of population growth, the highest average family size, the highest proportion of illiterates, and the lowest proportion of persons with a secondary school certificate or a degree in Kerala.

These facts establish a very strong case for formulation and implementation of public policies, which would enhance this educationally backward population to use part of the remittances they receive for the improvement of the educational levels of its people.

One way to do this could be to allow the Muslim community or any other educationally backward community, or persons from Malappuram district or any other educationally backward district, to establish what has now come to be known as self-financing educational institutions of their own, starting with general high schools, technical schools, colleges in general education and colleges for technical education being financed and managed by themselves. What is mentioned above about self-financing educational institutions could be said also about self-financing hospitals, health centres, etc.

Conclusion

.. On balance, our conclusion is that emigration will continue to increase for some more yeas, but return emigration would increase at a faster rate, resulting in a period of net negative international migration. Early in the next century, there would be another turn around in the migration trend. The number of return emigrants would become larger than the number of emigrants and net emigration would turn negative.

During the past 10 years, NRI bank deposits have been increasing at a healthy 20-25 per cent per year. The chances are that, there won't be a turn around in deposit growth for some more years to come ...