A spate of massacres of innocents has spread like jungle fire on the Jammu side of Pir Panchal.

There may be also some truth in accusations and counter-accusation between state government and the Centre but none can absolve itself of its own responsibility in not heeding to the warning signals that had been given by the militants.

Some useful lessons may be drawn from this controversy to plug the loopholes in the security system ... But ... certain vital factors (must be considered)  in planning an effective policy to deal with the situation. Firstly, what are the changes that have taken place in the character, composition, objectives and strategy of the militant movement and its differences from what it was in the earlier phase in the Kashmir Valley? Secondly, why the present area of its operation did not respond to the call of the militants earlier and why it has become more hospitable now? Connectedly and thirdly, what are the political inputs needed to supplement the security operations?

Initially it was a Kashmiri revolt by Kashmiri youth under Kashmiri leadership ... They got all the support they needed for the revolt from Pakistan ... As contradiction developed between Kashmiri urges and Pakistan's objective in Kashmir, the latter sponsored parallel militant outfits, closer to its objectives and ideology. Gradually the Kashmiri cadres and leadership of militant movement were replaced by those based in  Pakistan or Pak-held part of the state. Meanwhile Kashmiri ethnic stock of militant youth had been considerably depleted.

As long as the militancy retained its Kashmiri character, was led by and comprised of Kashmiris and was inspired by what is broadly called Kashmiriat, it had little appeal for non-Kashmiri Muslims, across Pir Panchal on Jammu side. The new brand of militancy is alien in character and spirit to the Kashmiri ethos ...

The non-Kashmiri militants are much closer to the ethnic stock in the border districts of Poonch, Rajouri and Udhampur hills ... Meanwhile the Muslims majority of this area had many reasons to feel disillusioned with the Kashmir based leadership of the ruling National Conference. With the collapse of the Congress in the state, they had earlier shifted their allegiance to the new ruling party.

Gujars are a vital Muslim community in the area. They were considered to be one of the most loyal communities of the state and often supported the ruling party. But they did not get as many seats in the assembly in the present dispensation as they used to. There is only one Gujar MLA out of five Muslim majority constituencies of Rajouri and Poonch against three they held previously. The community had also expected more of state elected from Kashmir region whereas earlier its representation used to be larger with at least one cabinet minister. It has no representation in the six member Regional Autonomy Committee. Gojri language, the symbol of identity of the community, has still not been recognised in the Constitution of the state.

In sheer desperation, some Gujars joined the BJP. But the capacity of the party to accommodate aspirations of any Muslim community still remains extremely limited. With the Congress, in a state of hibernation, the Gujars seem to be losing a sense of political belonging and thus are not entirely unvulnerable to appeal from the other side of the border.

The other major community living both sides of the Line of Control is Pahari; which has its own list of grievances. It has been fed on false promises on grant of scheduled tribe status ever since the Gujars were granted this status in 1991. Its worst tragedy is that its identity and its aspirations are least understood by the government or by other communities. The Chief Minister does it less than justice when he described Paharis as people living on Pahars (hills). In fact it is a distinct ethnic community including Hindus, Muslims and Sikhs and aspires for recognition and empowerment.

During the entire turmoil of the last decade, the two border districts remained a model of communal harmony. The same was true of the adjoining north east hilly areas of Udhampur. But further north east Doda district, was  the first target of militancy in Jammu region which was facilitated by local communal tension. The problems of the entire belt from Poonch to Kishtwar along south eastern side of Pir Panchal are aggravated by under-development, growing number of educated unemployed youth and lack of communications.

The recently concluded parliamentary election almost completely polarised politics of Jammu along communal lines. The BJP which had failed to get a majority in any assembly segment of the two Lok Sabha constituencies of Jammu region in the election of 1989 and had lost its deposit, won, for the first time, both the seats. It swept the poll in all Hindu majority constituencies. Actually both parties benefited by negative voting ... But the new polarisation not only left all communities discontented but also weakened the regional identity and its role as a cementing force between religious community.

New thrust area of Pakistan's political and militant  offensive is the Muslim majority belt of Jammu, from Poonch to Kishtwar, which is tending to feel religiously insecure and starved of its ethnic urges.

From the very beginning pro-Pak rather than pro-Azadi militants have been active in Jammu region. While in the Valley pro-India Muslims and members of the establishment were the main targets ... In Jammu region.