INFILTRATION
Sanjoy Hazarika On Migration in Assam
Assam has a total of 24 districts and a current population estimated at 22.4 million. Of this figure, as many as 15.04 million are Hindus and 6.37 million are Muslims. The rest belong to smaller religious denominations.
The growth rate of the Hindus between 1951-61 was$3.96% in the same period, the percentage growth of Muslims was 33.95. And this in a time when there was officially acknowledged wide immigration from East Pakistan. Of both Hindus and Muslims. The respective growth rates for the two communities was 34.76% for Hindus in the 1961-71 decade and 29.96% for Muslims.
The Hindu population has grown at the rate of 155 percent between 1951 and 1971 while the Muslim numbers have grown by 219 per cent.
There was no census in 1981 because of the student agitation.
What do the latest figures show?. One. a 41.61 per cent growth rate for the Hindus which is not inconsistent if viewed over 20 years. That works out to just over 20 percent per decade or two per cent per year. The Muslim population has soared by 2.8 million or 77.33 per cent in this time. That makes it a growth rate of about 38.6 per cent for each decade. Which is about the same level as the data for 1951-61.
I spoke with Dr. Natarajan of the Population Foundation of India recently about these figures and here marked that such a high growth rates could not just be attributed to fertility and high birth rate but to large immigration
What is significant is that the maximum growth of the Muslim population is along the borders with Bangladesh. Confirming a trend that was set well before Partition. Thus, while two districts were Muslim-dominated in the 1971census that number has grown to four Dhubri. Goalpara and Barpeta all in Lower Assam and Hailakandi in Cachar district to Assam's southeast.
What ... is the situation in other districts apart from thefour listed above?
According to the 1991 census. Marigoan, a formersubdivision of Nogaon district which is now a district in itsown right. there was a bare 60.000 difference in numbers between Hindus and Muslims. In Nogaon, there is an80,000 difference. And in Karimganj, a bare 14,025.
My views are not anti-Muslim. I do not share the silly analysis of the Bharatiya Janata Party that makes a Hindu illegal immigrant. a "refugee" and a Muslim migrant, an "infiltrator". An illegal migrant is an illegal migrant, no matter what his or her religious label is.
Shahabuddin's Reply to The Hindustan Times, 5 December, 1996
Sanjoy Hazarika's article "Migration - Assam under Deluge" (H.T., 28.11.1996) presents an alarming picture of rise of Muslim population in Assam which he attributes to incessant migration from East Pakistan/Bangladesh. Though he does not differentiate between Hindu and
Muslim migrants, his thesis is likely to strengthen the communal forces which do.
The crux of his thesis is that between 1951 and 1971, the Hindu population has grown by 155%, while Muslims have increased by 219%, and that between 1971 and 1991,the corresponding figure are 41.61 and 77.33. I do not understand why he has not taken the 1951-1991 (4decades) to establish his case. As the figures will show, he has a reason.
In 1951, the total Muslim population was recorded as19.95.936 in a total population of 88,30,723. The Census Report (Page 257) noted that "Some Muslim of Goalparaand Kamrup Districts might not have been able to comeback to their houses in Assam during the 1951 Census” and again "Some Muslims living in Char or Sand banks ofthe river Brahmaputra might also have been left out of thecount of the 1951 Census". It is estimated that during the communal riots of 1950 in Assam, many Muslims had fled to East Pakistan and about 4-5 lakhs returned to Assam during 1951-61. Therefore, the Census figures of 1951 need to be corrected by adding at least 4 lakh absentees, to make it a total of 23,95,936 i.e. 24 lakhs in a total of 92,30,723 i.e.92.3 lakhs. With this correction 1951-71 growth rate of Muslim and of total population comes to 49.9% and 65.6%respectively.
In 1991, Muslim population has been recorded as 63.7lakhs in a total of 224 lakhs. The Muslim growth during the4 decades (1951-1991) comes to 165% while the total population has increased by 154%. The difference is marginal. Even this may be attributed to the same social
and economic factors which explain the generally higher rate of growth of Muslims as against Hindus in the country.
In 1951. the Muslims constituted 25.95% of the total population and the correspond figure for 1991 is 28.43.Here again the Muslim proportion has only marginally increased. One reason for the higher count of Muslims in Assam is the fear generated in them by the events of the80's - the fear of disenfranchisement and expulsion which was transformed into mobilisation for being counted during1991 Census. During 1951-91, the total population of the country has increased by 135% which is quite comparable to that of Assam which is 153%. The differential which not alarming may be largely due to influx of Hindu "refugees"/immigrants.
