NATIONAL POLITICS

A Raghavan on Cong(I)-BSP's Prospects in UP

The forthcoming Assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh (UP) are expected to set a new trend in India's national politics. The polls will have a serious impact on the Deve Gowda government at the Centre.

As things stand, the polls will be a three-cornered contest; the main contenders being the BJP, BSP- Congress and a block of the United Front constituents like the Samajwadi Party, Janata Dal, Tiwari Congress and the Left. Admittedly, the BJP is the front runner. Judging by the Lok Sabha poll outcome, which witnessed a multicentered contest, the BJP had won in 236 of the 425 Assembly segments. In other words, the BJP has already had the majority.

The statistics of the overall voting also give another message. The combined votes polled by all the secular parties like the SP, BSP, Janata Dal, two Congresses and the Left came to 47% as against the BJP's 34%.

The message is clear. If all the secular parties put up a joint fight, the BJP will be left to stew in its own Hindutva juice. The fly in the ointment here is the Bahujan Samaj Party of Kanshi Ram and Mayawati.

Keeping this in view, Deve Gowda himself took a certain initiative to woo Kanshi Ram and Mayawati through his confidant C.M. Ibrahim. It was, of course, hard going, given the untouchability the Dalit leaders practice towards Mulayam Singh Yadav whose Samajwadi Party is the most formidable adversary of the BJP in the state.

The BSP polled 20% of the vote in UP in the LS polls. The BJP's game plan is to isolate the votes polled by the BSP. The BSP has now an alliance with the Congress which polled 8% of the vote. The BJP can combat this alliance, but it would have a tough time fighting a united front.

The BSP's principal demand is that Mayawati be the next chief minister whatever the combination that spearheads the victory. As a corollary, the BSP wants the exclusion of the Samajwadi Party from the combination so that Mulayam Singh would not become a rival candidate.

The United Front set up at the Centre cannot afford to concede such a sectarian demand without jeopardising. the new experiment. The fact is that BSP supremo Kanshi Ram is openly hostile to the United Front government at the Centre. He has gone on record that if the BSP- Congress alliance won in UP, the Congress could withdraw its support from the Deve Gowda government.

The BSP is, of course, a rising political force in India. But there is little evidence of an all India programme except Kanshi Ram's erratic pronouncements.

After bad-mouthing Gandhiji, the party lined up with the Congress. One thought 'Manuvad' was its permanent bugbear till one fine morning it formed its government in UP, climbing over the shoulders of the BJP, the largest Manuvadi outfit in the country.

Time and again, Kanshi Ram has declared that taking the BJP on is not part of his party's agenda. But at no time has he spelt out its agenda.

Bharatiya Janata Party stalwart Sunder Singh Bhandari declared the other day in Delhi that in UP the BJP and BSP "are natural allies!" They have a common inspiration.

The ancestors of both the BJP and BSP had stayed away from India's freedom struggle. You will never get to hear a word of condemnation from Kanshi Ram on the Ayodhya outrage. Many of his pronouncements are anti- minority.

The UP polls will expose Kanshi Ram's bravado.

Kanshi Ram is all st to help the BJP to come back to power in UP. If the three-cornered contest results in at hung Assembly, Kanshi Ram will go with that. combination that offers the post of chief minister.

BSP: Kanshi Ram's Views on Muslim Indians

At my meetings with party workers, I have made my stand clear. I want the victims of our social system to unite so as to end the injustices they suffer. But the Muslims have never agreed to this. They want to go with the strong, not with the weak and deprived sections.

V.P. Singh, Mulayam Singh tell them, "I'll protect you", so they follow such leaders. I tell them, "If V.P. Singh, Mulayam Singh, Kanshi Ram protect you, it's okay, but why can't you protect yourselves? Why can't you join hands with other oppressed people to fight for your rights? But they feel somebody should protect them. Muslims will not come to us unless we are in a position to protect them. If BSP becomes strong, they will come to us on their own, we need not woo them. So, our effort is to get rid of our weakness.

(Source: The Week, 18 August, 1996)