NATIONAL POLITICS

Situation Report of Assam Based on Hindustan Times and Indian Express

The resurgent Asom Gana Parishad has launched a massive offensive against the ruling Congress led by Chief Minister Hiteswar Saikia in a bid to wrest power in the forthcoming elections to the Assam Legislative Assembly.

The AGP has formed a four-party alliance with the CPI, CPI-M and the Autonomous State Demand Committee (ASDC). In the outgoing State Assembly, the AGP had 19 seats, the CPI four, the CPI-M two and the ASDC four seats.

After the merger of the AGP with the Natun Assam Gana Parishad of the AGP led by former State Home Minister Bhrigu Phukan which had won five seats, the tally of the unified AGP soared to 24, emerging as the leading Opposition party in the State.

The Congress had 65 seats in the State Assembly, as a result of pro-Congress wave in 1991. The BJP, riding on the Hindutva sentiments had emerged as the third largest party in the State with 10 seats, mostly in the constituencies bordering Bangladesh where the Hindu sentiments against migrant Muslims ran considerably.

Given this scenario, all the political parties are hoping to make major gains in one other's traditional bastions, especially the AGP-led four-party alliance and the BJP which is going it alone in the forthcoming polls both to the State Assembly as well as the Lok Sabha.

The BJP has taken the issue of illegal migrants from Bangladesh as its poll issue, put on the back-burners now by the AGP which had swept to power on the same issue in 1986.

At the other end of the electoral spectrum are a bunch of small parties which have formed a 10-party alliance under the leadership of Congress-S president Sarat Chandra Sinha, former Chief Minister of Assam (called) the Left Democratic Alliance(LDA).

The 10-party alliance is expected to primarily cat into the vote banks of the AGP.

For minimizing this, the LDA is seeking seat adjustments with the four-party alliance led by the AGP. Though there were hopes of the Bodo issue being resolved through tripartite talks in Delhi with Prime Minister P.V. Narasimha Rao and Union Home Minister S.B. Chavan in recent days, these hopes have receded after the announcement of polls by the Election Commission on March 19.

Opposition parties, however, are apprehensive that a secret understanding may emerge from the tripartite talks with the Bodo leaders to give the Congress chance again for forming a Government in the state. All eyes therefore are trained on the outcome of the decision of the Bodos, expected to be taken on March 23 when they may announce a newly-unified Bodo political group to contest polls.

The AGP has already begun its exercise of taking the Bodos into confidence over the contentious land issue. The AGP leaders are keeping their fingers crossed that the Congress loss may well turn out to their electoral gains.

The BJP is quietly doing its work in the border areas along the Indo-Bangladesh international borders and is expected to make gains even in constituencies adjoining the border constituencies which are Congress bastions, especially in Brahmaputra Valley areas in lower Assam.

The predicament of the Congress can be assessed by the Chief Minister Hiteswar Saikia's decision to contest from two constituencies, namely Dispur and his home constituency of Nazira in Sibsagar district, respectively.

Nobody is taken in by the Assam Congress party president's statement that he is merely bowing to the wishes of his party workers by contesting from Dispur.

The Congress and the AGP have admitted independently that considerable violence would be expected during the forthcoming polls to the State Assembly.

Already Mr. Saikia has begun to accuse the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) of committing violent acts to undermine the prospects of the ruling party. He has charged the banned insurgent outfit with threatening various Congress leaders with dire consequences allegedly in a bid to discourage them from taking part in the polls.

The AGP, on the other hand, has accused the Congress of driving a wedge in the original All Assam Students Union (AASU) which led to a breakaway group forming the ULFA. The AGP has also accused the Congress of utilizing the services of the surrendered ULFA cadres (SULFA) to intimidate contestants of the AGP and other parties.

While Mr. Saikia justifies the need to conduct polls with the helps of the Army and para-military forces, Mr. Mahanta claims that the security forces would deter genuine AGP supporters from turning out at polling booths in large numbers.

Notwithstanding these accusations, both the prominent parties are aware that the forthcoming polls to the Assembly would be keenly contested.

Multi-cornered fights would come as a disadvantage to parties opposed to the Congress due to massive division of votes among the Opposition parties.

What is worrying the Congress though is its dwindling support of traditional allies. The Ali, Kuli and Bengalis are unhappy with the ruling party for reasons of their own. As a fallout of the general disenchantment with the Congress, Muslims are drifting towards the AGP, while the Kulis are fed up with the ruling party for not paying any heed to their long standing demand for tribal Religious minorities, especially the Muslims settled permanently in Assam after migration from Desperate Scramble for Muslim Votes erstwhile East Bengal, East Pakistan and present-day The Congress(I)-led ruling coalition in Kerala is busy Bangladesh (and) concentrated primarily on the Indo- wooing the Indian National League (INL) into its fold in Bangladesh border districts of Hailakandi and Karimganj districts of Barak  valley in southern Assam as also Dhubri and Goalpara districts in Western Assam, part of the Brahmaputra valley.

There are other influential pockets of this religious minority especially in Naogaon, Kokrajhar, Nalbari, Barpeta, Kamrup districts among others. The Ahom community and the tribals have been accusing Saikia of "Islamisation" and "Bangladeshisation" of Assam.

According to some political analysts, the Muslims today form 26 per cent of the total population while the Ahom community has been reduced to 22 per cent. The ruling Congress has as many as 18 Muslim legislators out of its total of 63, while the Asom Gana Parishad has one and the CPI ad the Socialist Union (SUCI) have two cach, totalling 23 out of a 126-member legislative assembly.

Throughout the seventies and eighties, Saikia had assiduously cultivated the Muslim vote-bank and taken up cudgels on their behalf resolutely defending the genuine original settlers as well as illegal migrants, who in turn stood staunchly by the Congress in all elections to the State Assembly and the Lok Sabha.

 Yet, the Muslim alienation of Saikia is almost complete, emotionally if not electorally. Of all the minorities, the Muslims today have no qualms about betraying their two-decade-old benefactor.

RSS: Consensus of Allahabad Conclave

The RSS leadership feels that notwithstanding the involvement of BJP leaders in the hawala case, the prevailing political scenario is congenial for the victory of the BJP and its allied forces in the forthcoming elections. The RSS has made it clear, it would have the overall command on the election apparatus and the BJP will have to evolve its strategy according to the norms set by the meeting.

 In a far reaching decision, the RSS has agred to give ticket to the outsiders also but the person must have a clean public and private life, this criteria according to sources will help the BJP to counter the moves of the Congress.

 The two-day conclave of the RSS, held in Allahabad, came to the conclusion that in the present situation the BJP has not come up to expectations in its performance, hence it is imperative that the RSS should take a more active and decisive role. Sources maintain that the RSS leadership was also not happy with some of the BJP leaders who bypassed the dictates of the RSS.

The RSS leadership still holds the view that instead of trying to search for a fresh poll issue, the BJP-VHP combine and their allies should continue to highlight corruption as the main issue and the next election should be fought on this plank. This would dispel the impression) in the common people that the BJP is plagued with corruption. The RSS has directed the BJP units not to dilute the issue of fighting-corruption.

The BJP and VHP while pursuing their tactical line of fighting corruption should amalgamate the issue of Hindutva with it.

The VHP and other allied organizations on their own will further the line of Hindutva to the advantage of the BJP candidate. The failure of the BJP in drawing the Dalit force has spurred the RSS to set up a core group "Dalit Seva Sangha", on the line of the Banavasi Sangh active in the tribal areas. Dalit Seva Sangh working in close cooperation with BJP, and under RSS control, will be able to counter the BSP and other and garner Dalit votes.

Report on Kerala

Desperate Scramble for Muslim Votes

 The Congress(I)-led ruling coalition in Kerala is busy wooing the Indian National League (INL) into its fold in a desperate bid to retain Muslim votes in the Malabar region. The Indian Union Muslim League, the second major constituent in the ruling United Democratic Front, has already struck an understanding with People's Democratic Party, led by Mr. Abdul Nasser Madani.

For the same reason, the INL chief, Mr. Ebrahim

Sulaiman Sait, is still confused about rejoining the front, directly or indirectly. He has already shot down the IUML proposal for a merger "in the larger interest of the community". Yet, Mr. Sait is eager to avoid a split in Muslim votes. There are overtures from the Left to Mr. Sait to come to an understanding in those seats that belong to IUML and field "joint independent candidates". Mr. Sait is, however, not sure whether the Leftists will keep their word after the elections are over. In any case, the Leftists' are over. In any case, the Leftists' proposal to Sait conveyed through CPI leaders, is too one-sided for serious consideration Madani  has already announced his third front - comprising the PDP, the JSS, led by Mrs. K.R. Gowri, and a few other organizations. which would come to an alliance of sorts with the ruling coalition. Spurned by the Leftists for long, Madani is left with no other option. If Mr. Madani's third front were to fight the elections on its own... it would merely help the victory of the Left Front, with a three-way split in Muslim votes.

A Section of the IUML is opposed to any arrangements with either INL or PDP. Any understanding with INL or PDP would deprive the party of its Hindu votes due to the general impression that Sait and Madani are fundamentalists. The IUML-PDP understanding and the talks between IUML and INL have the Leftists worried. The Left Front has benefited from the split in Muslim votes in all recent by-elections and partially or fully would help the designs of the Cong(1). elections to local bodies. Sait rejoining the IUML it is a crucial decision for Sait.

(Source: T.N. Gopaloumar in The Statesman, 20 March, 1996)