NATIONAL POLITICS

UP Civic Elections, 1995

Analysis by Dilip Awasthi, India Today,

31 December, 1995

The party's impressive victories in the Uttar Pradesh local-body elections, apart from reiterating the party's hold on urban areas, has once again focused the spotlight on the politics of the communal divide in the state. True, none of the religious hysteria witnessed in the 1991 and 1993 assembly elections was in evidence during the run-up to these polls, yet the party was able to manage a decisive verdict in its favor in most areas.

For the first time for 627 key positions in local bodies, including the mayors of 11 Nagar Nigams political parties fielded candidates under their party banners. It was also the first time that voters were directly electing their mayors.

In the absence of any compelling religious issue, and also anticipating a backlash owing to the BJP's support to the short-lived Mayawati government, SP leaders had reckoned that the BJP's hold over the voters was on the wane. In retrospect, this turned out to have been a terrible miscalculation. Not only did Mulayam Singh Yadav's party fail to make any dent, the BJP, despite the internal rebellion that had gripped the party, proved it was still strong enough to defend its citadels, winning eight of the 11 mayoral elections, 83 of the 197 posts of chairpersons of Nagar Parishads and 102 of the 419 chairpersons of Nagar Panchayats. The party also won 430 of the total 830 ward seats in the 11 Nagar Nigams. In comparison, the SP managed to get just one of its candidates elected as mayor-in Moradabad - while in Allahabad, it shared the post jointly with N.D. Tiwari's Congress which too had supported Independent winner Reeta Bahuguna. It won just 27 seats in the Nagar Parishads and 45 in the Nagar Panchayats, besides 138 ward seats in the 11 Nagar Nigams. The BSP, which had ruled the state until three months ago, and the Congress(1), the Janata Dal (JD) and the Tiwari Congress were virtually wiped off the slate.

While the BJP leaders' elation is justified, the party can scarcely afford to be overconfident. Results of local elections are rarely a true indication of the way in which the electorate will vote in the general election, primarily because in local elections individuals matter more than the parties they represent. That perhaps explains the impressive victory of an unprecedented number of Independents who took more than half the key posts. While only one Independent was elected mayor, they still won 68 posts in the Nagar Parishads and 230 in the Nagar Panchayats, more than the BJP's tally. They also secured 48.5 per cent of the votes polled to become the single largest group in these elections.

      UP Civic Polls, 1995

       Party Position

                                                    Nagar        Nagar            Nagar

                                                    Nigam      Parishad       Panchayat

Independents                                 1               68                230

BJP                                                 8               83               102          

Karnataka Civil Elections, 1995

K.S. Dakshina Murthy,

The Hindustan Times, 11 January, 1996

As per provisional results announced by the State Election Commission, of the 147 civic bodies which. includes four corporations and 143 municipalities, the Janata Dal(JD) has won a majority in nearly 90. The Congress follows next winning about 36 bodies while the BJP has managed to corner power in just eight civic bodies. Even Independents are in a majority in some 13 places.

The JD has also secured a majority in Gulbarga, Mysore and Hubli-Dharwad corporations, while Independents dominate Belgaum corporation. Overall, of 3,276 wards elected, the ID has 1,291, Independents 1,134, Congress 767, BJP 399, Karnataka Congress Party 63, CPM 8, CPI 10 and State Farmers' Association 4.

In the final reckoning, the JD hopes to take over power in at least 120 bodies with the help of Independents. Elections have been put off in Dakshina Kannada and Bangalore city following unsure law and order conditions. In the Assembly elections of December 1994, the JD had won a simple majority getting 116 seats, the BJP 40, Congress 35 and the Karnataka Cong. Party 10. Later, however, half of KCP MLAs joined the JD and eight Independents expressed support to the ruling party. A couple of months after the Assembly polls, the JD repeated its performance with the BJP and the Congress still coming fh second and third in polls to the panchayats across the State.

That the Congress has managed to upstage the BJP despite the fact that dissidence still continues to dog the State leadership is viewed with some satisfaction in party circles. The BJP, however, is the biggest loser with observers placing the blame on a complacent State leadership which has gone adrift in the absence of concrete issues. So much so, even mofussil towns and cities which were thought of as BJP strongholds have turned down the party, much to its shock.

Former Chief Minister S. Bangarappa's tenuous hold over the State seems to be slipping further with his KCP not winning even a single civic body. His nuisance value to the Congress is a debatable point at this stage.

The victory of large number of Independents who as a bloc come second in the overall ranking is attributed to local factors which is understood to have played a dominant role at the hustings.

(Source: The Hindustan Times, 11 January, 1996)

SP                                1          27        45

BSP                             1          8          22

Congress(I)     -           6          12

Congress (T)   -           1          4

Janata Dal       -           4          -

Others -           -           4

Total                           11        197      419